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SERVICES SECTORS
Market's loss means sector's gain By PITSINEE JITPLEECHEEP Firms in the commerce sector of the SET are expected to see windfalls this year amid a sluggish stock market as investors turn their attentions to safer shares for better returns.  Historically, the share prices of commerce stocks have tended to move in the opposite direction to the trend of the overall market. When the stock market has been bullish, commerce stocks have gone down. However, the low liquidity of some shares is the main problem for the sector. An analyst at KGI Securities said the outlook for the local retail market this year was still bright despite the slowdown in the economy and negative factors, such as rising oil prices and political unrest. Businesses selling daily goods, like fresh food for example, would still do well because these products were necessities. Even though there were many negative factors that affected consumer sentiment last year, like bird flu, the tsunami and high oil prices, firms in this sector had sales and profits in line with expectations. The sector recorded an average oneyear total shareholder return (TSR) last year of 44.6%, slightly up on a three-year TSR of 36.2%. Robinson (ROBINS), capitalised at 8.663 billion baht, took the top spot for one-year return in the sector with 125.4% and came third for three-year return with 40.7%, despite recording a poor 10-year TSR of -15.9%. Home Products (HMPRO), capitalised at 7.626 billion baht was close behind Robinson with an 86.4% one-year TSR and a three-year TSR of 56.3%. Big C Supercenter Plc (BIGC), at 24.843 billion baht, came in third place with a 73.1% one-year yield and performed well overall with a three-year TSR of 29%, five-year TSR of 19.2% and 10-year TSR of 12.9%. Meanwhile, Diana Department Store (DIANA), capitalised at 29 million baht, remained the poorest performer in three TSR categories, with scores of -62.4%, -40.6% and -26.8% for one, three and five-year periods, respectively. The diversified trading firm Loxley Plc (LOXLEY) was ranked the second poorest performer in terms of one-year TSR with -38.9%, on market capitalisation of 4.076 billion baht, followed by Berli Jucker, capitalised at 8.099 billion baht, with a one-year score of -16.9%. About half of the firms in the sector scored better in one year than over three years. The worst performer overall, Hat Yai's Diana Department Store, faced strong competition across various retail segments in the area. It was also affected by violence and floods in the South. The drop in tourism also resulted in a decline in consumer purchasing power. Despite this, Diana put a lot of efforts into reviving its sales and profit. Netr Chantrasmi, managing director of Diana Department Store, said product merchandising was one of the company's strategic priorities. The company aimed to sell more Chinese products because they generated four to five times the margin of Thai products. In the future, the firm plans to offer more Chinesemade toys, gifts, general apparel, children's goods and other products. ``Our sales gradually improved in a positive way after store facelifts. For sales of ICC apparel, we moved up from number four [out of the four stores in Hat Yai that sell ICC products] to number two last year,'' he said. An executive at Robinson Department Store said its performance had improved dramatically over the past three years thanks to the repositioning of its store brand image and the shifting of its target to medium-income customers. According to a market survey, this target group goes more for modern products than brand names. The company offers limited editions so consumers buy the products at a faster rate.
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