Speculation over who will be next in line to lead the army has intensified following the announcement of armed forces retirees released on Saturday.
Two assistant army chiefs - Gen Thirachai Nakwanich and Gen Preecha Chan-o-cha, younger brother to Prime Minister Prayut - have emerged as potential candidates to succeed army chief Udomdej Sitabutr, who will retire by the end of September.
The mid-year military reshuffle next month will also see hopefuls jostle for leadership in the military.
Last Monday, Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon approved a retiree list of 446 armed forces generals, whose mandatory retirements are due at the end of September.
Gen Udomdej Sitabutr pledged support to the prime minister when he was selected as army chief last October. He must retire in October, and two top candidates have emerged to take his job. (Photo by Apichart Jinakul)
- Police contenders: Pheu Thai figure is leading candidate as chief
They include Supreme Commander Worapong Sanga-nate, Gen Udomdej, navy commander Adm Kraisorn Chansuvanich, and the permanent secretary for defence Gen Sirichai Ditthakul. Of the armed forces bosses, only air force commander ACM Tritos Sonchaeng will remain in office until his retirement in September next year.
The senior military officers who hold ministerial portfolios in the government are also among the retirees.
They include Deputy Supreme Commander Paiboon Koomchaya, who doubles as justice minister, deputy army chief Gen Chatchai Sarikulya, who concurrently serves as commerce minister and army chief of staff Gen Surachet Chaiwong, who has a dual role as deputy education minister. Gen Udomdej also serves as deputy defence minister in the cabinet.
However, an army source said the senior military officers are expected to stay on in their ministerial posts even after their mandatory retirement from the armed forces.
The source also said that by that time Gen Prayut may consider a cabinet reshuffle to bring in some retired senior military officers to join the cabinet.
On the left, Gen Thirachai Nakwanich, who has the backing of Defence Minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon. On the right, Gen Preecha Chan-o-cha, who has a familiar family name. (Bangkok Post file photos)
Gen Prayut may also consider reshuffling the 15-member NCPO by assigning the freshly-appointed armed forces leaders to replace NCPO members who retire from the military, the source said.
Whether Gen Udomdej will stay on as the NCPO secretary-general after his retirement from the army, or who will be appointed to succeed him as the new NCPO secretary-general, remains to be seen.
Standing out among the military retirees is Her Royal Highness Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn, who holds the rank of a full army general and has served as a lecturer at the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy in Nakhon Nayok for 35 years.
It is unclear if she will be asked to keep her role as special lecturer, but new students there are still keen to study with the princess, the source said.
The next step is for Gen Prawit to consider the mid-year military reshuffle to find replacements for the retirees by July before the list is submitted for royal endorsement in September.
Speculation is rife over who could be in line for leadership of the army. One of the two potential candidates is Gen Thirachai, who is believed to have the support of Gen Prawit. Another contender is Gen Preecha. Their mandatory retirement date is the same — Sept 30, 2016.
But Gen Preecha's hopes took a hit when Gen Prayut earlier indicated he might not support his young brother's bid for the top post.
"There is no need for me to back my brother to join the army in order to support the government. If I do a good job, the armed forces will support me," Gen Prayut said.
Observers noted that if Gen Prayut has to stay on as prime minister for two more years, he may have to appoint Gen Preecha to lead the army to ensure there will no counter-coup against him.
But a Defence Ministry source said Gen Prayut wanted to stay away from his younger brother's bid for the top post to avoid criticism of nepotism.
The military reshuffle list will be considered by a Defence Ministry committee comprising the defence minister and his deputy, the permanent secretary for defence, the Supreme Commander and the chiefs of the army, the navy and the air force.
But Gen Prayut will have a final say on the matter, the source said.
Gen Prayut shouldn't have anything to worry about regarding a potential counter-coup if Gen Thirachai becomes the new army chief, the source said.
The pair are from the Burapha Phayak (Tigers of the East) faction, with Gen Prawit dubbed by the media as the "big brother" of the powerful military clique.
Gen Preecha is a former commander of the 3rd Army, which oversees security in the North.
If Gen Preecha is promoted to army chief, he will become the first army officer from the North to lead the army. Most of the previous army chiefs came from the 1st Army, which controls key military combat units in Bangkok and the Central region.
These combat units have played a key role in staging previous military coups.
However, the source said that if either of the two candidates miss out on the top army post, he will still be accorded the seat of the supreme commander or the permanent secretary for defence. Gen Prawit earlier told the Bangkok Post that anyone who can be of utmost benefit to the army and the country will be chosen.
