Thailand suffered from the SARS threat in 2003 and had the first decline in growth seen in the recent past. The recovery in 2004 was very strong and has seen additional real growth beyond recovery. Tourist arrivals growth is forecast to continue into the future at a reasonably high and stable rate through to 2008. The only major risk is an extension of the political problems in the Southern regions. Phuket has also been slow to recover from the tsunami but much of this trade has shifted to other parts of Thailand.


Malaysia and Japan are the two main source markets and their shares are projected to decline during the forecast period, along with China (PRC), the UK, the USA, Taiwan and Germany. Market-share growth is expected for Korea (ROK), Singapore and Hong Kong SAR. Thailand continues to project the image of a safe destination and has, to-date, been free of terrorist activity despite several investigations that have suggested that Thailand could be a target. The SARS threat also had a relatively moderate impact on Thailand, so that the 2004/2005 growth rate is reflective of a significant recovery. Thailand is also receiving flows re-directed from Indonesia and the Philippines. Since 2003, China (PRC) has moved in ranking from 6th to 4th place while Singapore has moved ahead of Hong Kong SAR and the USA has moved ahead of Taiwan.


Tourism Receipts

Receipts declined in 2003 but are forecast to increase rapidly alongside increased arrival numbers through the forecast period.

Seasonality

Arrivals peak between November and February with a lesser peak occurring between July and August. The impact of the SARS threat in 2003 can be clearly seen in the arrivals drop for April-May.

Regional Forecasts

The regional forecasts take into account both the tsunami of December 2004 and the continuing difficulties in the far southern region with political activists. Arrivals in 2004 were extremely strong and represent a recovery from 2003. Averaged over the period 2004 to 2008, the forecasts indicate a relative slow-down in tourist activity for the two southern regions of Phuket and Hat Yai and significant growth in the other regions, although it is expected that Phuket will recover. Nakhon Ratchasima is also projected to have slow growth. The percentage growth rates need to be compared taking into account the relative size of the flows, for example, Bangkok has a much smaller projected growth rate than Chiang Mai, but this percentage (7.58%) is off a much larger base number. Growth in numbers in Bangkok exceeds growth in numbers in Chiang Mai. The growth rates are for flows between regions, not for international arrivals directly to regions, and are based upon accommodation records.

There is a projected turnaround in growth for Kanchanaburi and Ko Samui has benefited from the tsunami-induced slow-down in Phuket and improved air connections, including with Hong Kong SAR. The growth for Samui depends upon continued expansion of air capacity. Kanchanaburi was affected by the SARS threat most significantly of all the Thailand tourism regions and strong recovery has been forecast. Recovery is also forecast for Sungai Kolok after a 2004 downturn.