Israel is bracing for a direct and unprecedented attack by Iran on government targets as soon as this weekend, according to people familiar with western intelligence assessments, a move that has the potential to trigger an all-out regional war.
An assault from Iranian soil has emerged as one of the main scenarios expected by the Jewish state and its allies, said the people, who asked not to be identified as they aren’t authorised to discuss the matter publicly.
A bombardment with drones and precision missiles could come within the next 48 hours, they said.
“I don’t want to get into secure information but my expectation is sooner rather than later,” President Joe Biden said on Friday in response to a question about whether an Iranian strike was imminent.
Asked what message he would give to Iran, Biden responded, “Don’t.”
“We are devoted to the defence of Israel,” Biden said. “We will support Israel, we will defend, help defend, Israel and Iran will not succeed.”
The price of oil jumped to its highest level since October on the news, rallying 2.6% to top $92 a barrel. Futures prices have surged 19% this year with the Mideast war adding a risk premium to the market.
The US is preparing defences and has moved additional military assets to the region, while intensifying diplomatic efforts to rein in hostilities, the sources said.
Among the US forces in the Middle East are two Navy destroyers that moved to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea last week, according to a Navy official who asked not to be identified discussing military movements. One is the USS Carney, which was recently in the Red Sea carrying out air defence against Houthi drones and anti-ship missiles.
US officials including national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Brett McGurk, the White House coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, have been working to send messages to Iran, including through an established Swiss channel, one of the sources said. They are also talking to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other governments.
The intelligence assessment is that the attack still hasn’t been approved by Tehran’s highest-ranking officials, according to the sources. An Iranian missile and drone barrage would represent a retaliation for a deadly strike on its diplomatic compound in Syria last week, which the Islamic Republic blames on Israel.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly said Israel will be “punished” for the assault, though stopped short of saying what form such a counter move would take.
Late Friday, Israel reported 40 rocket launches from Lebanese territory and said some were intercepted. Israeli forces also intercepted two explosive drones belonging to Iran-backed of Hezbollah earlier in the day, the Israel Defense Forces said in a post on X.
One of the sources said it’s possible that the increasingly inflammatory rhetoric by Israel, Iran and the US could be grandstanding, but said the working assumption for Israel and allies is that an attack is imminent. Diplomatic back-channels are in overdrive, they said.
Any Iranian attack on Israel would likely be a combination of missiles and drones, based on current capabilities outlined in a new US Defense Intelligence Agency threat assessment released late Thursday.
The regime “has a substantial inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles capable of striking targets as far as 2,000 kilometres from its borders”, the agency said.
A direct Israel-Iran conflict would significantly rachet up hostilities in the Middle East, where tensions have been rising since Israel began its war against Hamas in Gaza in October, after the Iran-backed militant group invaded the country and killed about 1,200 people. Hamas is designated a terrorist organisation by the US and European Union.
Western officials said intelligence reports showed Iran is preparing an attack on Israel any day after Eid al-Fitr, the Muslim holiday that was celebrated on April 10, adding that the next 48 hours were critical to see if the message to defuse tensions had successfully reached Tehran.