BoT pours cold water on export view

BoT pours cold water on export view

Full-year growth of 9% looking less probable

A cargo ship leaves Bangkok Port with containers of Thai goods. The Bank of Thailand on Wednesday said chances are slim for the regime to make good on its target of a 9% export increase for 2018. (File photo)
A cargo ship leaves Bangkok Port with containers of Thai goods. The Bank of Thailand on Wednesday said chances are slim for the regime to make good on its target of a 9% export increase for 2018. (File photo)

The central bank says export growth is, well, 'slower than projected' and probably won't even make the regime's 9% target for this year.

Export value contraction in September was beyond the central bank's current forecast and full-year growth could be slower than projected, said Pornpen Sodsrichai, director of economic analysis at the Bank of Thailand.

October's reading will provide clarity, she said.

"The [central bank] estimates export growth for this year at 9%, while it grew 8.1% for the first nine months of the year," Ms Pornpen said. "To achieve the forecast, exports need to grow 11.4%, which is considered a challenging figure, for the final quarter."

Given the high-base effect, year-on-year export growth in October likely declined from September's level.

Payment-based exports dipped 5.5% year-on-year in September on a mix of negative factors, including the US-China retaliatory tariffs and a high comparative base.

The overall contraction was also attributed to accelerated exports of cars to Australia in earlier periods and the temporary disruption of goods transport to trading partners, particularly Japan, the Philippines and Hong Kong, due to natural disasters.

Moreover, the high-base effect stemming from last year's surge in exports of mobile phones from the launch of new models, plus accelerated shipment of solar cells and washing machines before the US safeguard measures were put in place, weakened exports.

In September, Thailand's overall shipments to China contracted 14.1% from a year earlier.

Another key engine driving the Thai economy, tourism, also tapered off in September, with foreign arrivals registering moderate growth of 2.1% year-on-year.

Foreign tourist growth declined to 1.9% in the September quarter from 8.4% and 15.5% in the second and first quarters, respectively, due to a decline in Chinese arrivals.

With the slower growth pace of foreign arrivals and the export contraction, the economy in September expanded at a slower pace from the previous month.

Positive momentum in September was supported by domestic demand from both private consumption and investment, as well as public spending.

Ms Pornpen said the central bank will monitor economic momentum for the rest of the year.


Do you like the content of this article?
COMMENT (3)

Phuket governor: Sri Panwa resort land ownership legal

PHUKET: The owner of Sri Panwa Phuket resort has legal title to the land, the provincial governor said on Wednesday, after the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) agreed to investigate the resort.

17:11

Govt to consider fresh stimulus measures to revive economy

The government is considering offering tax incentives to its middle and upper income groups to bolster consumption as part of new measures to revive an economy reeling under the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

16:58

Thai workers leave for jobs in Israel

About 200 Thais left to work on farms in Israel on Wednesday on a flight arranged by the Labour Ministry, which declared the Covid-19 situation is "easing".

16:48