Private sector expects export growth to slow next year

Private sector expects export growth to slow next year

The private sector predicts slower export growth next year, affected by the global trade situation. (File photo)
The private sector predicts slower export growth next year, affected by the global trade situation. (File photo)

The private sector through two key organisations on Tuesday warned that export growth would decline next year, mainly on the continuing trade war between China and the United States.

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking projected export growth this year to come in at 8-10%,  but said it would be difficult to retain the pace next year because China and the US were likely to impose more trade barriers against each other.

In addition, the new United State-Mexico-Canada Agreement would have an impact on Thai industries. The committee also mentioned Washington's decision to drop 11 Thai products from its Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), and the slowing growth of major economies.

The Thai National Shippers' Council expected exports to grow more than 5% next year, but believed the Commerce Ministry's 8% growth target would be challenged by the China-US trade war.

For this year, the council put export growth at 8%, as the Bank of Thailand predicted.

It mentioned that September's export value of US$20.7 billion was down by 5.2% year-on-year. Shippers were concerned about the possibility of a decline in exports for the rest of the year.

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking  also pointed to the fall in the number of Chinese tourist arrivals, attributing it to a loss of confidence and to the weakening of the Chinese currency and Chinese people's purchasing power as a result of the trade war.

In September about 648,000 Chinese visited Thailand, down 14.89% year-on-year and down 11.77% from August.

However, in the first nine months of this year there were 28.54 million foreign visitors, up 8.7% year-on-year. The number of Chinese arrivals grew 13.3% year-on-year in the same period, but dropped 8.8% year-on-year in the third quarter.

The committee said if the cabinet exempts visa fees for visitors, arrivals were expected to rise.


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