Recap: Global stock markets rebounded at the end of the week in response to easing trade tensions between China and the US and new stimulus from the European Central Bank. All eyes will be fixed on the US Federal Reserve meeting next week, with another interest-rate cut widely expected.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,655.95 and 1,679.03 points before closing at 1,661.96, down 0.5% from the previous week, in turnover averaging 59.85 billion baht a day.
Brokerage firms were net buyers at 3.5 billion baht. Foreign investors were net sellers of 1.76 billion baht, institutional investors sold 898.9 million and retail investors offloaded 833.7 million baht worth of shares.
Newsmakers: US President Donald Trump will delay a planned tariff increase on US$250 billion worth of Chinese goods as a "gesture of goodwill" prior to the resumption of trade negotiations. He said a 5% increase to duties scheduled for Oct 1 will be postponed for two weeks.
- China's exports fell unexpectedly by 1% year-on-year in August as shipments to the US slowed sharply, adding to worries about the effects of the trade war.
- Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Thursday that Britain would be ready for a no-deal Brexit on Oct 31 despite his own government's warning that planning remained "at a low level". The beleaguered pound was headed for its biggest weekly gain since May after The Times reported possible progress in Brexit negotiations related to the contentious Irish backstop.
- South Korea says it will file a complaint to the World Trade Organization over Japan's "politically motivated" export restrictions, upping the ante in an intensifying dispute with its neighbour.
- Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said his Chinese counterpart offered Manila a controlling stake in a joint energy venture in the South China Sea, if it sets aside an international arbitral award that went against Beijing.
- The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has bid almost £32 billion for the London Stock Exchange in a shock move on Wednesday to bring together two of the world's largest financial hubs.
- Nissan Motor Co is looking for its third CEO in as many years after Hiroto Saikawa resigned amid a scandal over pay. Saikawa took over in April 2017 from Carlos Ghosn, who was arrested in November for alleged financial crimes.
- New short-term corporate bond issuance has slumped by 75% and average daily trading in short-dated corporate bonds in secondary markets is down 50% since a 15% withholding tax on gains from investment in fixed-income funds came into force on Aug 20.
- Local stock investor confidence for the three months through November has dipped into neutral territory from bullish in the previous survey, dampened by worries about trade tensions, the country's sluggish economy and listed companies' profitability.
- Business sentiment fell to a 19-month low in August amid concern about low consumer purchasing power and financial liquidity and the US-China trade row.
- The SET says it is confident it can create new market capitalisation worth 250 billion baht from IPOs this year, even though such deals have had an initial market value of only 55.5 billion so far.
- The Bank of Thailand is likely to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points before the year-end to prop up the sluggish economy amid growing uncertainties, according to the Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank.
- The EU ambassador to Thailand has affirmed that the bloc is poised to resume long-delayed free trade agreement negotiations with Thailand.
- The government plans new stimulus measures this month for the rural poor, hoping to spur GDP growth to surpass 3% in 2019, says Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak.
- The Excise Department has revived a proposal to tax salty foods by setting a ceiling at 2,000 milligrammes per day of sodium as a benchmark.
- The residential property market is likely to fall by 10% this year as the impact of the economic slowdown and loan-to-value limits continues into the fourth quarter, say industry analysts.
- The sales rate for new condominiums launched in Bangkok in the second quarter fell to historic lows as lending curbs, a weak economy and stronger baht dampened demand, according to Knight Frank Thailand.
- The number of foreign tourists arriving in Thailand rose 5.6% in August from a year earlier, with Chinese visitor numbers rebounding strongly.
- The government's plan to push Phuket as a world-class Mice (meetings, incentives, conventions, exhibitions) destination faces numerous impediments, especially inefficient town planning and poor transport systems.
- The State Railway of Thailand and a consortium led by Charoen Pokphand Group is expected to sign a contract for the construction of the high-speed railway linking three airports.
- PTT Plc wants to become a regional trader of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with a plan to increase the utilisation rates of two LNG facilities in Rayong and to develop markets in neighbouring countries.
- Central Group is targeting an initial public offering of its retail arm as soon as the first quarter of next year which could raise around 61 billion baht, according to people familiar with the matter.
Coming up: The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its meeting minutes on Tuesday and Germany will release September economic sentiment. Japan will release August trade figures on Wednesday, with Britain and Canada announcing August inflation the same day.
- The US Federal Reserve and Bank of England will announce policy decisions on Thursday. The Central Bank of Brazil will also hold a rate meeting and Australia will release August unemployment data.
- Japan will release August inflation on Friday and the EU will announce preliminary consumer confidence for September.
Stocks to watch: Capital Nomura Securities says the launch of the iPhone 11 will lend support for JMART and COM7. The tourism sector is also poised to benefit from high-season travel, with suggested picks AOT, ERW, MINT and SPA. Recommended high-dividend stocks are ADVANC, INTUCH and KKP, while suggested property equities are AP and SPALI.
Tisco Securities recommends potential beneficiaries of government economic stimulus programmes including CPALL, BJC, AEONTS, KTC and MTC. Stocks outperforming in the face of the Sino-US trade war are BEM, BTS, BDMS, EKH, BJC and CPALL. Suggested picks among property funds, REITs and foreign investment funds are QHPF, CPNREIT, WHART, EGATIF, JASIF, DIF and TFFIF.
Technical view: Maybank Kim Eng Securities Thailand sees support at 1,640 points and resistance at 1,680. Asia Wealth Securities sees support at 1,605 and resistance at 1,695.
