Shippers have again trimmed their annual export growth forecast to -1.5% from -1% in July, mainly due to the ongoing Sino-US trade row and weak global demand.
They also forecast the economy to grow by 0-1% in 2020.
Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, chairwoman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council, said that given the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s recent revision of its global economic forecast and Thailand's poor export performance in the first eight months, shipments will have a tough time in the remaining months of the year.
In September, the OECD said the global economy would see the weakest growth this year since the 2008-09 financial crisis, slowing from 3.6% last year to 2.9% before picking up to 3% in 2020. The forecast put the bulk of the blame on the US-China trade war.
The Paris-based OECD said the outlook has soured since the last update in May, when the global economy was estimated to grow by 3.2% this year and 3.4% in 2020.
On Sept 20, the Commerce Ministry reported that Thai exports dipped 4% in August from a year earlier after an unexpected rise the previous month, caught up in global economic uncertainty stemming from trade tensions and weak worldwide demand.
In August, customs-cleared outbound shipments fell by 4% year-on-year to US$21.9 billion after increasing by 4.3% in July, the first rise in five months after contractions of 2.2% year-on-year in June, 5.8% in May, 2.6% in April and 4.9% in March.
The Commerce Ministry said the increase in July likely came from imports being front-loaded to avoid the imposition of US tariffs that started on Sept 1.
In August, overall imports fell by 14.6% to $19.9 billion, yielding a trade surplus of $2.05 billion.
For the first eight months, exports fell by 2.2% year-on-year to $166 billion, with imports down 3.6% at $160 billion, for a surplus of $6.10 billion.
Ms Ghanyapad said that apart from the trade row and weak global demand, the baht’s strength is another key concern, as several countries have introduced monetary easing policies.