Shippers expect gloom with 2019 forecast slash

Shippers expect gloom with 2019 forecast slash

Economic weakness seen into next year

The Thai National Shippers’ Council trims the annual export growth forecast to -1.5% from -1% in July, due to the ongoing Sino-US trade row and weak global demand. (Bangkok Post photo)
The Thai National Shippers’ Council trims the annual export growth forecast to -1.5% from -1% in July, due to the ongoing Sino-US trade row and weak global demand. (Bangkok Post photo)

Shippers have again trimmed their annual export growth forecast to -1.5% from -1% in July, mainly due to the ongoing Sino-US trade row and weak global demand.

They also forecast the economy to grow by 0-1% in 2020.

Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, chairwoman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council, said that given the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s recent revision of its global economic forecast and Thailand's poor export performance in the first eight months, shipments will have a tough time in the remaining months of the year.

In September, the OECD said the global economy would see the weakest growth this year since the 2008-09 financial crisis, slowing from 3.6% last year to 2.9% before picking up to 3% in 2020. The forecast put the bulk of the blame on the US-China trade war.

The Paris-based OECD said the outlook has soured since the last update in May, when the global economy was estimated to grow by 3.2% this year and 3.4% in 2020.

On Sept 20, the Commerce Ministry reported that Thai exports dipped 4% in August from a year earlier after an unexpected rise the previous month, caught up in global economic uncertainty stemming from trade tensions and weak worldwide demand.

In August, customs-cleared outbound shipments fell by 4% year-on-year to US$21.9 billion after increasing by 4.3% in July, the first rise in five months after contractions of 2.2% year-on-year in June, 5.8% in May, 2.6% in April and 4.9% in March.

The Commerce Ministry said the increase in July likely came from imports being front-loaded to avoid the imposition of US tariffs that started on Sept 1.

In August, overall imports fell by 14.6% to $19.9 billion, yielding a trade surplus of $2.05 billion.

For the first eight months, exports fell by 2.2% year-on-year to $166 billion, with imports down 3.6% at $160 billion, for a surplus of $6.10 billion.

Ms Ghanyapad said that apart from the trade row and weak global demand, the baht’s strength is another key concern, as several countries have introduced monetary easing policies.


Do you like the content of this article?
COMMENT (5)

Two Thai doubles pairs survive at World Tour Finals

Two doubles pairs from Thailand have advanced to the semi-finals of the HSBC BWF World Tour Finals following a busy day at Nimibutr Stadium in Bangkok on Friday.

9 Dec 2022

Army hospital first stop for freed athlete Griner

American basketball star Brittney Griner arrived back in the United States on Friday morning after being released from a Russian prison in exchange for Victor Bout, an arms dealer known as the “Merchant of Death”.

9 Dec 2022

Second move

Graft busters petition court to sack suspended cabinet minister and accused land encroacher Kanokwan Vilawan and ban her from politics for up to 10 years.

9 Dec 2022