Thailand’s economic growth is expected to expand at a slower pace in the second half, with a downward trajectory anticipated for each business segment, according to the latest chief executive survey.
The economy is expected to expand by 2-3% propelled by domestic drivers such as the fiscal policy, public spending, domestic political stability and tourism expansion, said the latest survey by the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
Slower economic growth, the Sino-US trade dispute, the baht’s appreciation and flagging exports are factors having an adverse effect on Thailand’s economic growth outlook, with 85% of surveyed chief executives pointing out the trade dispute is a negative event, said SET senior executive vice-president Soraphol Tulayasathien.
The survey involved chief executives of 118 SET-listed companies, which represent 46% of the bourse’s total market capitalisation.
For export projections in the last six months of 2019, 36% of those surveyed expect the performance to remain unchanged, 33% think the shipment performance will worsen and 31% anticipate an improvement.
Most surveyed chief executives have greater concerns about consumers’ purchasing power, which is one of the main attributes driving the economic engine, and are increasingly worried about the economic conditions of Thailand’s trading partners, said Mr Soraphol.
Thailand’s economy grew by 2.8% and 2.3% year-on-year in the first and second quarters, respectively. Full-year growth is forecast to arrive at 3% this year, boosted by the government’s recent stimulus package amid dwindling exports and lacklustre private consumption.
Some 42% of chief executives believe their business segments will deteriorate in line with the slower pace of economic growth in the second half, while 31% anticipate an improvement in business performance to continue from the first half into the second.
A full 27% anticipate no change in the performance of their business segments.
The surveyed chief executives project an investment outlook for the next 12 months to remain unchanged as they are adopting a wait-and-see mode for a clearer outlook on economic growth.
But 50% of those surveyed plan to expand their investments overseas, especially neighbouring countries.