Trade optimism lifts world stocks again

Trade optimism lifts world stocks again

Recap: Hopes of a trade deal between Washington and Beijing sent world stock markets and other risk assets higher on Friday, though an escalating wave of global protests from Hong Kong to Chile left some deep scars.

The SET index moved in a range of 1,595.32 and 1,634.09 points and shed 7.24 points yesterday to close at 1,602.23, down 2.2% from the previous week, in turnover averaging 47.8 billion baht a day.

Retail investors were net buyers of 5 billion baht, foreign investors bought 3.2 billion and brokerage firms purchased 1.8 billion worth of shares. Institutional investors were net sellers of 10 billion baht.

Newsmakers: US President Donald Trump directly asked about a Ukrainian investigation into his Democratic rival Joe Biden, a top US diplomat has revealed. Bill Taylor, the acting ambassador to Ukraine, told an impeachment inquiry that a member of his staff was told Mr Trump was keen to push for the probe.

  • Increasingly violent actions by pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong have "seriously challenged the baseline principle of 'one country, two systems'," Chinese President Xi Jinping warned on Thursday, as tensions in the territory continued to rise. "Stopping violence and controlling chaos while restoring order is currently Hong Kong's most urgent task," he said.
  • China's proposed digitised domestic currency is not a bid to gain full control of information belonging to the general public, a senior central bank official said, adding that the goal was to balance privacy concerns and the authorities' need for information.
  • Britain's economy has grown at the slowest annual rate in almost a decade, with year-on-year growth in the three months to end-September slowed to 1% from 1.3% in the second quarter.
  • Spain's Socialists and the radical leftwing Podemos have agreed in principle to form a coalition government in what would be the first such power-sharing deal in the country's modern history.
  • A Malaysian court on Monday ordered former Prime Minister Najib Razak to present his defence against seven charges linked to the looting of 1MDB, saying a unit of the state fund had been created "for his own private advantage".
  • Alibaba's 11.11 global shopping festival set a record on Monday with the equivalent of 1.1 trillion baht generated throughout the 24-hour event, whipped up by strong demand in the Chinese market despite an economic slowdown.
  • British Steel is set to announce a rescue deal with China's Jingye Group, which could safeguard up to 4,000 jobs in the UK. Jingye Group has agreed in principle to buy British Steel for £70 million.
  • Five major budget airlines operating in Thailand have asked the Finance Ministry reduce the excise tax on jet fuel, saying they are suffering as tourism sags, costs surge and the baht strengthens.
  • Thai Airways International Plc is expected to post a loss of around 2.2 billion baht this year, significantly less than the 10 billion projected earlier, according to president Sumeth Damrongchaitham.
  • Foreign investors were net sellers of Thai equities for a third consecutive month in October, with external headwinds and profit-taking the main reasons, says the Stock Exchange of Thailand.
  • Imminent permission allowing direct securities trading by foreign brokerage firms on the local bourse will lead to stiffer competition in the securities industry, with trading fees possibly falling to zero again, says SCB Securities.
  • A global recession remains unlikely but could emerge in the coming years if economic growth does not recover and businesses lay off employees to reduce costs, says the SCB Chief Investment Office.
  • The cabinet on Tuesday approved the third phase of the Taste-Shop-Spend scheme and allowed 500,000 elderly people to become eligible for the new phase, which offers a maximum 20% cash rebate to 2 million eligible recipients.
  • The government is planning additional economic stimulus measures if needed amid bleak forecasts for next year, says Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana.
  • At least five banks are expected to finish testing electronic know your customer (e-KYC) technology by the end of the year, says a senior official at the Bank of Thailand.
  • The SEC expects to conclude a proposal to amend digital asset regulations by the first half of next year, aiming to set up an investor protection fund.
  • The base rate for electricity will be frozen at 3.64 baht per kilowatt-hour for another four months from January to April next year, as the Energy Regulatory Commission wants to avoid power prices burdening consumers in a sluggish economy.
  • The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand is preparing to develop the country's first floating storage regasification unit worth 24.5 billion baht to support its business plan to import liquefied natural gas from 2020.
  • The telecom regulator is considering shelving February's planned auction of 26GHz spectrum meant for the 5G network on concerns about use case development and support for related equipment.
  • The Greater Bangkok housing market in the third quarter continued its decline from the first two quarters, with a larger drop because of the economic slowdown, loan-to-value limits and high household debt, says developer Pruksa Holding Plc.
  • Indorama Ventures Plc (IVL) says third-quarter sales volume grew 23% year-on-year to 3.3 million tonnes, but revenue for the period fell 3% to US$2.8 billion because of lower product prices.
  • SET-listed Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF), the agro-industrial and food conglomerate, reported a 23% rise in third-quarter net profit despite lower sales revenue, thanks to a recovery in pork prices and improved overseas aquaculture business.
  • Mazda in Thailand has reduced its overtime payments for local workers as scales back production in line with lower exports and domestic sales, attributed to the US-China trade war.
  • After the completion of the Samyan Mitrtown mixed-use complex, Golden Land Property Development, a subsidiary of SET-listed Frasers Property Thailand, is planning a new mixed-use project in Bang Na.

Coming up: The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold a policy meeting on Tuesday. Japan will release October trade figures on Wednesday, with China announcing the one-year loan prime rate and Canada announcing October inflation.

  • The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its most recent meeting on Thursday and the EU will announce preliminary November consumer confidence.
  • Japan will release October inflation on Friday and Germany will release final third-quarter GDP growth and preliminary November manufacturing data.

Stocks to watch: Tisco Securities says stocks targeted by long-term equity funds and retirement mutual funds include AOT, BDMS, CPALL, PTT and SCB. Recommended stocks benefiting from government stimulus are CPALL, BJC, AEONTS, KTC and MTC.

UOB Kay Hian Securities Thailand recommends infrastructure stocks whose share prices remain low such as WHAUP, SSP and NNCL. Suggested hospitality stocks are AOT, MINT and ERW, while small-cap healthcare stocks with low share prices are RPH, RJH and CHG.

Technical view: UOB Kay Hian sees support at 1,590 points and resistance at 1,620. Maybank Kim Eng Securities Thailand sees support at 1,580 and resistance 1,620.

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