China will continue to be the biggest tourism market over the next decade, with arrivals estimated to reach 23 million, twice current figures, says Krungthai Compass Research Centre, a research unit of Krung Thai Bank.
The forecast is based on an average annual growth rate of 7%, said the research house.
In a worst-case scenario, the volume might drop to 20 million, or 5.5% annual growth for the next decade if competition from neighbours lures Chinese tourists, particularly Vietnam.
Natthaporn Sritong, assistant vice-president of the centre, said 334 million Chinese are projected to make overseas trips in 2030, steady growth of 6.9% a year from around 160 million this year.
Of the 334 million travellers, 33 million will be millennial independent tourists.
China’s strong economy should result in robust growth of middle-class travellers for the decade ahead, rising to 43% of the total population, compared with a mere 8.2% in 2018.
Apart from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, Thailand is the most preferred destination for the Chinese market, followed by Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and Indonesia, said Mr Natthaporn.
Thailand's Chinese arrivals grew only 2% during the first nine months this year, posting much stronger rates of 27% for South Korea, 15% for Japan, 5% for Indonesia and 4% for Vietnam.
To maintain its competitive position, he suggests Thai tourism operators work to preserve the uniqueness of tourism resources and provide standardised services.
New tourism sites will play a vital role in attracting Chinese visitors, such as Phangnga, Prachuap Khiri Khan and Phetchaburi, all with beach destinations. Second-tier provinces such as Trat, Trang, Chiang Rai, Mae Hong Son and Sukhothai will also become more popular among them, said Mr Natthaporn.
Improving safety and security for visitors is essential as Thailand ranked poorly at 111th out of 140 countries in the recent Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2019 of the World Economic Forum.
Pimchatr Ekkachan, senior analyst at the centre, agreed that security and safety for tourists are crucial for Chinese visiting any country rather than the exchange rate.
Case studies show the decline in Chinese arrivals stemmed from safety issues such as the territorial dispute in the South China Sea in 2012 and the Phuket boat accident in 2018.
The strong baht will not impede their trips to Thailand but they will be more conscious about spending.
Phacharaphot Nuntramas, senior vice-president at the centre, said the slow China market this year was not caused only by the strong baht but also the side effects from the fatal boat incident in Phuket last year. It will take time to regain Chinese tourists’ confidence.
He said the 2,000-baht visa-on-arrival fee waiver helped boost Chinese arrivals after last year's decline and new visa facilitation will attract more.