Ad spending on the internet is likely to exceed TV spending within three years as digital disruption takes a toll on TV viewership, says Media Intelligence (MI), a creative media specialist.
Ad spending on the internet makes up nearly one-third of the total market, while spending on TV is expected to comprise less than 50% of the total market for the first time next year.
If political turmoil erupts in 2020 and a sluggish global economy drags on, media spending could worsen, possibly contracting 10%, MI warned.
"The economic slowdown is threatening consumer spending because it causes insecure employment and earnings. This takes a toll on ad spending by major industries, including automotive and property," said Pawat Ruangdejworachai, media director of MI. "Digital disruption also caused media spending to remain flat in 2019, which is lower than the previous forecast of single-digit growth."
Media spending through the first 11 months of the year fell 0.2% from the same period a year earlier.
"We expect 2020 to still be a tough year," Mr Pawat said, indicating that media spending could drop 0.15% to 89 billion baht.
If political instability or natural disasters affect crop prices, media spending could contract by up to 10%, he said.
In 2020, ad spending on the internet could register 24 billion baht, accounting for 27% of total media spending.
"We expect that online media spending might surpass TV in Thailand within the next 2-3 years, similar to the situation in Europe," Mr Pawat said, noting that TV viewership among Thais has dropped from four hours to two hours a day, while Thais spend seven hours on mobile devices.
TV viewership continues to be affected by digital disruption and changing user behaviour, he said.
In 2020, ad spending on TV is projected to account for just 47.5% of total spending, falling below 50% for the first time.
The reduced ad spending is taking a toll on the 15 digital TV channels, Mr Pawat said. Having only 5-10 channels may be the answer to the situation, he said.
Despite the growth of ad spending on digital and out-of-home media, the fall in total whole spending cannot be offset, particularly for TV and newspapers, Mr Pawat said.
Digital media consumption continues to grow but is clustered in gaming, chat, shopping and video.
Among social media platforms, Facebook is the most popular among Thais with 50 million users, followed by 47.8 million using Line and 40 million using YouTube.
In Thailand, foreign social media platforms receive 50% of total ad spending on digital media, Mr Pawat said. The rest goes to Thai influencers.
New digital media platforms, such as short video app TikTok and podcasts, are also gathering steam.
Influencers with podcasts could potentially gain media spending through sponsorships.
Mr Pawat said marketers and brands need to use data analytics to gain consumer insight, earmark budget for both online and offline channels and make more creative personalised advertising to be able to survive and benefit from their spending the most.