Recap: Most regional stock markets shed early gains on Friday as geopolitical tensions soared after a US airstrike at Baghdad airport killed one of the most powerful figures in Iran, Maj Gen Qassem Soleimani, head of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,592.20 and 1,604.43 points before closing at 1,594.97, up 1% from the previous week, in turnover averaging 57.89 billion baht a day for just three operating days.
Institutional investors were net buyers of 7.98 billion baht and foreign investors purchased 148.4 million. Retail investors were net sellers of 6.8 billion baht and brokerage firms offloaded 1.4 billion worth of shares.
Newsmakers: US President Donald Trump said the first-phase US-China trade deal would be signed on Jan 15 at the White House, and that he plans to then travel to China for continued talks. Beijing has not confirmed the date.
- Oil prices soared more than 4% on Friday, with Brent crude approaching $70 a barrel, following news that the US had killed Qassem Soleimani, fanning fresh fears of a conflict in the crude-rich region. Gold prices also reached a four-month high, and local gold climbed above 22,000 baht per baht-weight.
- China's central bank said on Wednesday it was cutting the amount of cash that all banks must hold as reserves, releasing around 800 billion yuan (US$115 billion) in funds to shore up the slowing economy.
- North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has declared an end to moratoriums on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests and threatened a demonstration of a "new strategic weapon" soon.
- A conglomerate run by Asia's richest man has started a service that aims to compete with Amazon in India. Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries said it had been inviting people to sign up to its grocery delivery service, aiming to use its massive mobile phone customer base as a springboard for the business.
- Former Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn, who fled to Lebanon to avoid the "injustice" of a Japanese trial, had a second French passport, a source said Thursday, as authorities raided his Tokyo residence as part of a probe into the embarrassing security lapse.
- The Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies said Tuesday that its sales rose about 18% in 2019 despite US moves to restrict its business.
- The baht began 2020 by retreating from the sub-30 level against the US dollar that it reached just before the new year, amid speculation that the central bank had stepped in to curb recent sharp gains.
- The Stock Exchange of Thailand recorded a small gain in thin pre-holiday trade on Monday, ending a year in which it was one of the weakest performers in Asia, rising just 1% from the end of 2018.
- Fourth-quarter economic growth is expected to be around 2.5%, good enough to reach the central bank's full-year forecast of 2.5%, though downside risk remains, says the Bank of Thailand.
- Consumer prices rose to a five-month high in December, raising the full-year inflation rate to 0.71% for 2019. The rise stemmed largely from an increase of 1.73% in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, primarily for rice, flour and flour products, which surged by 8.75% from the same month in 2018.
- Thailand could meet the three criteria that the US Treasury Department sets for placing a country on its monitoring list of "currency manipulators", according to the Economic Intelligence Centre (EIC) of Siam Commercial Bank.
- Despite a possible interest-rate cut of 25 basis points in early 2020, further monetary easing is unlikely to help lift domestic consumption and could risk destabilising financial conditions, the EIC cautioned.
- The Energy Ministry expects to push forward this year with its 21st round of licensing for offshore petroleum exploration and production activities, focusing on the Gulf of Thailand.
- The Excise Department is considering taxes on both non-alcoholic beer and non-beverage alcohol before forwarding the issue to the cabinet for approval by the second quarter of 2020.
- Ratch Group Plc has sold a 49% stake in Hin Kong Power Holding Co (HKH) to Gulf Energy Development Plc to form a joint investment for the 1,400-megawatt gas-fired power plant in Ratchaburi.
Coming up: Canada and the US will release November trade figures on Tuesday. Japan and the euro zone will release December consumer confidence on Wednesday.
- Australia will announce November trade figures on Thursday, China will release December inflation and Germany will announce November trade data. The US will announce December non-farm payrolls on Friday.
Stocks to watch: Capital Nomura Securities recommends an investment theme based on value plays, with suggested picks BBL, SCB, KBANK and KKP. Beneficiaries of the upgraded outlook for Thailand's sovereign credit rating include BBL, SCB, KBANK, MINT, CPF and PTTEP. Top picks for January are AOT, AMATA, CPF, PTTGC, STPI and TVO.
DBS Vickers Securities Thailand recommends fundamental stocks expecting to have a good first-quarter performance, among them ADVANC, AOT, CPALL, CHG, AIMIRT and PTTEP. It also recommends that investors accumulate AOT, BBL, CPALL, BDMS and PTT.
Technical view: Maybank Kim Eng Securities Thailand sees support at 1,575 points and resistance at 1,620. DBS Vickers Securities Thailand sees support at 1,580 and resistance at 1,620.
