Exports last year fell by 2.7% from 2018, weighed down by global economic malaise, low oil and farm prices and weak industrial product shipments.
The Commerce Ministry reported yesterday that customs-cleared exports for the whole of 2019 totalled US$246 billion, with imports dropping 4.7% to $237 billion, generating a trade surplus of $9.6 billion.
For December, outbound shipments fell for the fifth straight month but improved from a 7.4% plunge in November.
Exports fell by 4.5% in October, 1.4% in September and 4% in August.
Pimchanok Vonkorpon, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, the economic planning unit of the Commerce Ministry, said key factors that weighed on exports last year included the global economic slowdown, primarily due to the uncertain trade situation; relatively low global oil prices; decreasing exports of major industrial products such as automobiles and parts; tightened production and export standards; and relatively low prices of agricultural products.
But based on December's figures, Ms Pimchanok said the impact of the trade war on exports has noticeably stabilised and started to decline in recent months, owing to substitution effects both in the US and China and supply chain adjustment.
Exports of electronics rebounded in 16 months and exports of computers registered growth across major markets.
Moreover, the US-China phase-one trade deal has raised optimism about the global economic outlook and helped business confidence in the near to medium term.
In terms of products, a memorandum of understanding led by Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit bore fruit, improving exports of rubber, rubber products, rice and prepared foods to Turkey, as well as exports of rubber, rubber products, wood and wood products to India.
Some agricultural and agro-industrial products tallied historic export value amid a challenging period with a strong baht, including fresh, frozen and processed fruits, fresh and frozen chicken, beverages, wheat products and other food preparations, and sauces and preparations.
Exports of industrial products, namely motorcycles and parts, furniture, cosmetics, soaps and skincare products, steadily increased and maintained a positive trend.
Another development in December: exports to two major trading partners, the US and China, recorded positive growth of 15.6% and 7.3% respectively. Also, exports to Taiwan and the Middle East increased by 16.2 and 11.4% respectively.
"Exports are likely to improve in the future, reflected by the decreasing contraction rate, impact from external factors starting to neutralise, adjustment of important product groups related to the trade war and greater distribution of export markets," Ms Pimchanok said. "Some 1.5-2% growth is viable this year if exports fetch more than $20 billion a month."
Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, chairwoman of the Thai National Shippers' Council, said the full-year 2.7% contraction came as no surprise and was in line with the earlier forecast by the TNSC, which projected exports would drop by 2.5-3% in 2019.
The council forecasts export growth in 2020 to move in a range of 0% to 1%, citing the baht's appreciation as a key threat.