The Tourism and Sports Ministry plans to spend the first quarter assessing three major factors affecting tourism before deciding whether the 2020 revenue target should be slashed.
A revision may not happen if the economic cabinet approves the stimulus proposed by the ministry at the end of this month.
Tourism and Sports Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn said that while air pollution, the coronavirus and Mideast tension have troubled Thai tourism in January, an intensive remedy such as a free-visa scheme for Chinese and Indian travellers may be the solution.
He said the ministry's attempt to propose the visa-free scheme for international tourists failed last time because it lacked an integrated meeting before seeking cabinet approval.
But recently the five authorities in charge of safety and security -- the Defence Ministry, the Interior Ministry, the Immigration Bureau, the Foreign Affairs Ministry and the Tourism Ministry as chair -- set up a meeting to discuss the issue.
The idea is opposed by one agency, which Mr Phiphat is trying to persuade to see the benefit of the scheme before the cabinet meeting.
If the proposal is rejected, he will suggest the cabinet extend the waiver on the 2,000-baht visa-on-arrival fee from April 30 to Dec 31.
"I'm confident the visa-free scheme will increase the Indian market from an estimated 1.9 million to 2.5 million this year, with the Chinese market reaching 12 million, up from 10.9 million last year," Mr Phiphat said. "But if we do nothing, we'll lose the market to Malaysia, which is now offering 15-day visa-free visits to those two nationalities."
This year the government has set the receipt target from international tourists at 2.03 trillion baht, up 5%.
If the visa-free scheme is approved, the Tourism Ministry is ready to propose a continuous plan for international tourists, aiming to give incentives to them at airports.
"The main idea is borrowed from the Taste-Shop-Spend scheme last year," Mr Phiphat said. "We'll encourage tourists to spend more by offering them promotions."
The ministry yesterday issued its official tally of tourism in 2019. Overall international visitors reached 39.7 million, up 4.2% from 2018, with China, Malaysia, India, South Korea and Laos the top five source markets.
The significant growth of the Indian market by 24% was attributed to the waiver of visa-on-arrival fees.
Thailand gained 1.93 trillion baht from the international market, 3.1% higher than in the previous year.
Domestic travellers accounted for 1.08 trillion baht, up 1.2%.
"Total 2019 revenue was 3.01 trillion baht," Mr Phiphat said. "Though it managed to rise by 2.4%, we face external factors such as the global economic slowdown."
Tourism Authority of Thailand governor Yuthasak Supasorn said visa facilitation is necessary because of intense competition. Apart from going visa-free, visa fee exemptions could be used like they were in 2015 after the Erawan Shrine bombing at Ratchaprasong intersection.
Mr Yuthasak said the visa-free proposal is hard to implement because the Foreign Affairs Ministry stipulates that foreigners have to submit visa applications while visiting Thailand according to Article 12 of the 1979 Immigration Act.