Economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak is initially estimated at 300 billion yuan (1.3 trillion baht) in a month's time, putting China's annual GDP growth below the 6% baseline this year, says Kasikorn Research Centre (K-Research).
The nationwide death toll from China's viral epidemic rose to 170 as of Jan 30, with more than 7,700 infections confirmed worldwide, AFP and The New York Times reported.
China has banned its citizens from booking overseas tours and from purchasing overseas flights and hotel packages amid the ongoing coronavirus epidemic that began in Wuhan.
The country also put travel restrictions on the worst-hit province of Hubei, where Wuhan is the capital.
With the virus outbreak nowhere near the end, economic losses could reach 300 billion yuan in a month's time, shaving 0.3% off China's annual GDP growth, with retail, transport and services sectors bearing the brunt of the impact, said K-Research.
Around 215 billion yuan or 70% of total losses are anticipated to transpire during the Lunar New Year holiday, said the think tank.
Retail is projected to be hit the most by the virus outbreak as Chinese consumers will avoid offline shopping, with purchases of durable and luxury goods poised to decline significantly. Estimated losses for the retail sector are tallied at 130 billion yuan, said K-Research.
As travel restrictions are in place and some travel plans have been cancelled, combined losses for the services and transport sectors are estimated at 170 billion yuan.
China's economic growth in 2020 could even dive below 5% if the outbreak persists for more than three months, according to K-Research.
The virus will likely have an effect on the revenue of China's discretionary travel, transport, lodging, restaurants, retail and services sectors, said Moody's Investors Service.
"However, the impact on offline retail sales could be smaller compared with the weakness following the Sars outbreak because of the rapid shift to online sales in China over the past decade. Non-discretionary consumer demand related to the healthcare sector and medical equipment will likely surge," said the international credit rating agency.
Fear of contagion has been witnessed in global financial markets through equity sell-offs. China has a higher share of the global economy and has become more interconnected with other economies since the 2002-2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome.
"If the outbreak spreads significantly outside China, the burden on healthcare sectors in other affected countries will potentially increase. The revenue of companies and sectors that rely on Chinese demand will be affected as that demand dampens," said Moody's.