SCB pessimistic on 2020 GDP growth

SCB pessimistic on 2020 GDP growth

People wear face masks at Don Mueang airport on Feb 3, following the outbreak of the Wuhan coronavirus. (Bangkok Post file photo)
People wear face masks at Don Mueang airport on Feb 3, following the outbreak of the Wuhan coronavirus. (Bangkok Post file photo)

Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) has offered the most pessimistic view yet of Thailand’s 2020 economic growth, slashing its forecast from 2.7% to 2.1% after taking into account the coronavirus epidemic and the delayed fiscal budget.

The biggest impact from the outbreak of the novel coronavirus on Thailand’s tourism sector will be seen this month and next, the research unit said.    

The number of foreign travellers is estimated to drop for three straight months in the better-case scenario, four in the base-case scenario and six in the worst-case assumption, resulting in a contraction of 2.5%, 4.6% or 8.1% in 2020, the EIC said.

The Wuhan coronavirus will slow China’s economy this year, threatening the global economic recovery and dealing a blow to supply chains in the period ahead. In the EIC’s base-case scenario, Thailand’s export value is forecast to shrink by 1% this year, down from 0.2% growth predicted earlier.

The EIC’s latest forecast is far below policymakers’ views. The Bank of Thailand and the Fiscal Policy Office predict GDP growth of 2.8% this year. 

Apart from the Sars-like virus outbreak, the delay in the fiscal 2020 budget bill will hurt public investment in the three months to March.

The government is expected to hasten budget disbursement to shore up the economy after the budget bill is implemented. But the months-long delay can’t be completely offset, and state investment growth is now projected at 3.9% in 2020, down from an earlier 5.6% estimate, the EIC said.


Do you like the content of this article?
COMMENT (1)

Thailand improves in corruption survey

Thailand has improved by nine places to 101st out of 180 countries in the 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index from 110th in 2021, Transparency International (TI) said on Tuesday.

31 Jan 2023

Anutin posters cause a stir

The Pheu Thai Party on Tuesday joined a call for the Election Commission (EC) to look into posters erected at many state-run hospitals depicting Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.

31 Jan 2023

Court lets 'Pinky' remove electronic tag

Actress Savika “Pinky” Chaiyadej on Tuesday won approval from the Criminal Court to remove an electronic monitoring (EM) device she was required to wear after her release from jail on Nov 30 last year.

31 Jan 2023