Recap: China's announcement that it would cut more tariffs on US goods, signalling a further thaw in the trade war, did little to rev up market sentiment yesterday. Most Asian markets traded in a tight range as the mounting death toll from the coronavirus outbreak in China raised fears of global economic damage.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,495.94 and 1,514.14 points this week before closing yesterday at 1,535.24, up 1.4% from the previous week, in turnover averaging 61.8 billion baht a day.
Institutional investors were net buyers of 8.9 billion baht. Foreign investors were net sellers of 6.2 billion baht, retail investors sold 1.8 billion and brokerage firms offloaded 930 million worth of shares.
Newsmakers: More governments are imposing travel restrictions as the confirmed death toll in China from the coronavirus exceeds 630, including the doctor who first alerted medical colleagues to the problem only to be silenced by panicked local authorities. More than 31,000 people have been infected, the vast majority in Hubei province. Taiwan is the latest country to impose a total ban on Chinese travellers.
- Bangkok and Hong Kong are most at-risk from the spread of coronavirus based on air travellers expected to arrive from affected cities in China, say population mapping experts at the University of Southampton.
- China says it will halve punitive tariffs on $75 billion in US imports from Feb 14, a month after Beijing and Washington signed a truce in their trade war.
- Britain and the EU appear to have adopted hard-line stances that could make reaching a new trade agreement by Dec 31 difficult.
- Hong Kong's flagship carrier Cathay Pacific is asking its entire workforce to take up to three weeks of unpaid leave as it faces a crisis in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.
- The Chinese telecom giant Huawei plans to set up manufacturing hubs in Europe as it tries to fight off US pressure on EU nations to stop it from operating.
- The coronavirus outbreak has led the Tourism Authority of Thailand to chop its 2020 revenue target by 3.4% to 2.91 trillion baht. It has slashed its arrivals forecast to 36 million from 40.8 million earlier.
- The tourism sector has been the second worst performer on the SET after sliding by more than 14% year-to-date, with shattered first-quarter earnings projected as Chinese tourist arrivals plummet.
- Shippers expect the virus outbreak to have the greatest effect on farm product exports, notably fresh fruits and vegetables, with an impact also seen on imports of raw materials to make certain finished products like tyres and face masks.
- The cabinet this week approved a seven-month excise tax cut for jet fuel for domestic flights of local airlines, tax breaks for business operators that hold seminars in the provinces and hospitality operators that renovate their properties, and a three-month extension for personal income tax return filing to June 30.
- The Tourism Council of Thailand is demanding an additional 100 billion baht from the government to help small operators affected by the coronavirus, saying there is a loophole in the latest fiscal measures that could leave such businesses vulnerable.
- The government is putting face masks and alcohol-based hand sanitiser on the state price control list.
- The Bank of Thailand on Wednesday cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to an unprecedented 1% to curb the impact of the virus outbreak, the delayed fiscal budget and severe drought conditions.
- The Constitutional Court ruled yesterday that the fiscal 2020 budget was legally valid, but new votes must be held on the second and third readings that were marred by proxy voting earlier.
- CIMB Thai Bank has cut its 2020 Thai GDP growth forecast to 2.3% based on the assumption the economy will expand below 2% in the first half because of the virus epidemic and delayed fiscal budget.
- Consumer sentiment keeps falling, with the index in January sliding to an 11-mint low and its lowest level since March 2014. Concerns included the fiscal budget delay, the domestic economic slowdown and political instability.
- Headline inflation rose to an eight-month high of 1.03% in January, driven by higher raw food and energy prices.
- The Bank of Thailand is letting six commercial banks offer facial recognition using electronic Know Your Customer (e-KYC) technology to verify the identity of new customers when opening online deposit accounts.
- Less than a quarter of debentures due this year are corporate bonds issued by companies experiencing a slowdown, signalling the possibility of rollover difficulty and repayment postponement.
- The Energy Ministry is working with six oil traders to offer discounted prices of vehicle maintenance products and services to attract motorists, in an effort to curb air pollution.
- The two top-ranked mobile operators, Advanced Info Service (AIS) and True Move H, are said to be vying for three out of four spectrum ranges in the 5G licence auction scheduled for Feb 16.
- Central Group and Austria-based Signa have teamed up on a 50:50 joint venture to acquire Globus, a Swiss chain of luxury department stores, and eight associated properties from Migros-Genossenschafts-Bund.
- Tokio Marine Safety Insurance (TMSTH), a new entity from the consolidation between Tokio Marine Insurance Thailand Plc and Safety Insurance Plc, aims for gross written premiums of 21 billion baht and net profit of 1.1 billion in three years.
Coming up: China will release January inflation figures on Monday. Britain will release December trade figures and preliminary fourth-quarter 2019 GDP data on Tuesday.
- Australia will announce business confidence on Tuesday and February consumer confidence data on Wednesday, and the US will release January inflation data on Thursday.
- The European Union and Germany will release Q4 GDP data on Friday, and the US will release January retail sales figures.
Stocks to watch: Tisco Securities recommends global plays as Opec is expected to further reduce oil supply to support prices. Recommended stocks are PTTEP, TOP, SPRC, SCC, PRM, DELTA and HANA. AOT, MINT, ERW and AAV are tourism stocks poised to benefit from government stimulus measures. Equities benefiting from this week's policy rate cut include KKP, MTC, THANI, AP, LH, SPALI, DIF and TFFIF.
Aira Securities recommends dividend plays including JASIF, TOP, ORI, SPALI, SCB, AP and BTS. Suggested construction stocks are CK, STEC, UNIQ and SEAFCO, while healthcare plays are BCH, CHG and RJH.
Technical view: Aira Securities sees support at 1,543 points and resistance at 1,566. Maybank Kim Eng Securities Thailand sees support at 1,520 points and resistance at 1,565.
