The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) will discuss the coronavirus pandemic's effect on GDP and exports next week, as the nation braces for an estimated 5.3% GDP contraction and 8.5-10% drop in exports this year.
The panel in February cut its economic projection to 2-2.5% growth, down from 2.5-3% estimated in January. It maintained its export growth view of -2% to flat and its inflation target of 0.8-1.2%.
Kriangkrai Tiannukul, vice-chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and chairman of monitoring and evaluation of the trade war crisis and Covid-19 outbreak for the committee, said the wider spread of the virus is the latest risk putting pressure on the economy. The JSCCIB will discuss the issue on April 8.
"The panel is concerned that economic growth could shrink for the full year if the Covid-19 pandemic is prolonged until late 2020," Mr Kriangkrai said.
He said the spread of the coronavirus will slow many economies -- even China, which has already begun its recovery and reached a 70% average capacity utilisation rate for manufacturing.
"Many countries in Europe and the US have had an economic slowdown and weak purchasing power," Mr Kriangkrai said.
The JSCCIB recently estimated that the outbreak would continue for more than three months and cut the country's tourism receipts by 108 billion baht. If prolonged for six months, receipts would decline by 220 billion baht.
The panel reckoned that the value of Thailand's export sector would drop by 44 billion baht in February alone.
Global car makers such as Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Ford and Mazda shut down production lines from March to April because of falling car sales, with expected knock-on effects to related industries like auto parts.
The result will be Thailand producing 10,000 fewer vehicles this year, Mr Kriangkrai said.
"Normally in April, the many holidays cause car manufacturers to shut down their plants, so the panel cannot give exact details of car production for each company because many companies haven't shared the information with us," he said.
Car production in April averaged 140,000-150,000 units in past years, but this year the panel expects a decline to 120,000 units because of the impact of the coronavirus.
