Thai rice exporters expect to increase sales as the spread of coronavirus sparks global food security concerns and major competitors face export bans or go into lockdown to battle the outbreak.
Thailand, the world's second-largest rice exporter after India, started the year bracing for its lowest export volumes in more than seven years, after a strong baht and drought kept its 2019 prices uncompetitive against main rival Vietnam.
However, the kingdom now sees a better outlook after the virus outbreak sent India into a three-week lockdown and Vietnam, the world's third-largest exporter, banned new rice export contracts last week to ensure domestic supply, an industry body said.
"Thai rice exports should improve in the second quarter of the year, as our competitors limit exports or encounter logistics problems," Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, told Reuters.
"There is no sign Thailand will limit rice exports yet," he said, adding that no such measure was discussed during an exporters' meeting with the country's Ministry of Commerce last week.
Thailand, which usually produces just over 20 million tonnes of rice each year, consumes about 10 million tonnes domestically and exports the rest.
This year's output, hurt by an ongoing drought since November, would be enough to ensure no domestic shortage, while leaving a smaller surplus of around 8 million tonnes for exports, Mr Chookiat said.
The lower Thai supply was in contrast with India's record-breaking rice output this year and Vietnam's ample winter-spring crops.
Benchmark Thai 5% white rice <RI-THBKN5-P1> climbed this month to the highest levels since August 2013.
It was quoted last week at $481.5 per tonne, about 19% higher than a year earlier, and about $70-$120 higher than a similar Vietnamese grade <RI-VNBKN5-P1> and a benchmark Indian parboiled variety <RI-INBKN5-P1>.
In mid-January, the rice exporters body forecast a 7.5 million tonnes export target for 2020 due to uncompetitive prices, which Mr Chookiat at the time described as "optimistic".
But with the competitors' restrictions and limitations, that goal seemed more achievable as the coronavirus prompted consumers to hoard food and countries to replenish stocks, he said.
Since early March, Thai rice has been sought by supermarkets overseas, pushing up overall sales for the month by about 16% from February, said Mr Chookiat.
Major importer Philippines, which has bought more Vietnamese than Thai rice in recent years, said on Tuesday it was seeking to import 300,000 tonnes.
"At the beginning of the year, the Thai rice export outlook was so gloomy. But with the coronavirus outbreak, it's a complete 180," Mr Chookiat said.
"It should get better for Thai rice going forward."