Consumer confidence slumped to a historic low in March as people worried about the spread of the coronavirus, which is estimated to cost 1-1.5 trillion baht in losses to the economy in the first half of this year.
The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) reported yesterday that the consumer confidence index fell to 50.3 from 64.8 in February and 67.3 in January.
This was the 12th straight monthly decline and the lowest level since April 1999.
Thanavath Phonvichai, president of the UTCC, said Thailand's overall economic condition is now as critical as when the Asian financial crisis shook the region in 1997.
The pandemic is estimated to cause damage worth 1-1.5 trillion baht in the first half of the year: 700 billion baht in tourism revenue, 300 billion baht from lower private consumption and the rest from lower exports and border trade.
"Normal domestic consumption is estimated at 20 billion baht per day, but social distancing, the closure of department stores and stay-at-home campaigns are estimated to lower consumption by at least 5 billion baht per day," Mr Thanavath said.
A 5,000-baht cash handout per month by the government to informal workers affected by the outbreak is estimated to raise domestic consumption by more than 300 billion baht in the second quarter.
In the first quarter of the year, Mr Thanavath said international tourist arrivals are expected to fall by more than 40% from 10 million tourists under normal circumstances.
For the overall first half, tourist arrivals are forecast to drop by 12-13 million, with an income loss of at least 600 billion baht.
Normally, international tourists spend 45,000-50,000 baht per person.
"Consumers are now concerned about their expenditure and future income," Mr Thanavath said. "This will affect new-car sales and housing demand, as well as daily economic activities."
He said the university has asked for cooperation from provincial chambers of commerce to help evaluate the economy in each province to collect real data.
The economy could shrink by as much as 4-6% this year from an earlier projection of 2.8% growth as the country is plagued with myriad risks, he said.