When the global coronavirus lockdown finally ends Hong Kong will face punishing competition from other Asian cities for tourists, and its regular visitors - those from mainland China - are unlikely to return immediately, the tourism promotion chief has warned.
Hong Kong Tourism Board chairman Pang Yiu-kai said on Friday that while it was difficult to predict when the industry would recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, a V-shaped rebound was impossible in the face of restrictions overseas and flight suspensions.
What was certain was that every market would spend hundreds of millions of dollars, or even billions, to chase after tourists as the pandemic had paralysed global travel and battered the industry since February, he said.
"The tourism landscape will be reshaped, there will be a new normal," Pang said during an annual conference, live-streamed this year, with about 1,500 industry stakeholders.
"It is in fact an ideal time for us to review and rethink Hong Kong's position in the global tourism market and elevate service standards."
The tourism industry has taken the biggest hit from the coronavirus, which has infected at least 2.6 million people worldwide and killed more than 185,000. Top tourist destinations such as the United States, Spain, Italy and France are among countries with the highest number of infections.
In terms of inbound tourist numbers, Hong Kong ranked No 1 in the world in 2019 for the tenth year in a row, according to market research provider Euromonitor International. But the tide has turned.
The highly contagious coronavirus has resulted in lockdowns across the globe, and taken a heavy toll on tourism-related industries such as aviation, hotels and hospitality, retailing and meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions, or MICE.
New monthly low for Hong Kong's battered tourism sector
Hong Kong's decision to temporarily close all but three border checkpoints in February, and a subsequent ban on passenger transiting through Hong Kong International Airport, resulted in tourist arrivals plummeting by nearly 99% in March year on year, a record low.
Mainland tourists, who accounted for about 80% of the city's total, have all but disappeared over the past three months.
Pang said that based on market analysis, mainland tourists and those from short-haul markets would travel domestically soon after the pandemic died down.
Outbound travel would follow, with short-haul breaks and shorter itineraries preferred, he added.
"The return of visitors depends on the readiness of individual markets," he said. "The key considerations include the pandemic stabilising in a market, no more 14-day quarantine requirement in place, and flights resuming between Hong Kong and China."
The post-pandemic recovery would contrast with that after the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) in 2003, he said.
"In 2003, the Sars outbreak was mainly in Hong Kong. For Covid-19, in addition to Hong Kong, the whole world is affected," Pang said.
Hong Kong's sagging economy received a shot in the arm in 2003 after Beijing allowed mainland tourists to visit the city in an unprecedented arrangement known as the individual visit scheme. Before the scheme was launched mainlanders could only visit in tour groups or under business visas.
Although economic activities had gradually resumed across the border and people were returning to work, mainland travellers would place greater emphasis on health and nature after months of confinement, Pang said.
"When choosing destinations for future trips, they will be more price conscious and will favour those that pose low risks to health," he said. "The MICE market on the mainland has slowed down and activities have been held online or postponed."
Regionally, young and middle-aged Japanese, Koreans and Taiwanese would be the most eager to travel, but would favour short-haul trips because of financial and holiday leave constraints, he said.
Long-haul travel would take longer to recover and Hong Kong's outbound sector might not resume until the last quarter of this year, he added.
Executive director Dane Cheng Ting-yat said the board had earmarked HK$400 million (1.67 billion baht) to support the industry through a three-stage approach.
It was currently carving out a recovery plan as the first stage.
Cheng said that when the pandemic showed signs of abating, the board would focus on restoring confidence in Hong Kong by promoting visits to different neighbourhoods and communities. In tandem with this, it would team up with its counterparts in selected markets to entice travellers to the city.
A large-scale relaunch of Hong Kong would follow as the final stage, he said.
Euromonitor forecasts the number of Hong Kong's tourist arrivals, who stay overnight, will drop 12.5% this year to 20.78 million. Last year, Hong Kong's overall tourist arrivals, including day trippers and overnight stayers, slumped 10.4% to 32.16 million.
Tourism is one of Hong Kong's four pillar industries, contributing 4.5% to gross domestic product in 2018.