FTI chairman says economy's worst is past

FTI chairman says economy's worst is past

Supant Mongkolsuthree is confident that the fourth quarter won't be as bad as the second

The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) is trying to alleviate fears of a severe economic impact in the fourth quarter, arguing that Thailand is not facing the same uncertainties as it did during the first encounter with Covid-19 earlier this year.

Mr Supant says the latest 3,000-baht handout may not be powerful enough.

As entrepreneurs and workers begin to question whether the Thai economy bottomed out in the second quarter as anticipated by the Bank of Thailand, FTI chairman Supant Mongkolsuthree appeared more relaxed when asked to share his views on year-end economic prospects.

"The fourth quarter will not be as bad as the second quarter," he told the Bangkok Post.

He said the second quarter was a nightmare because of the lockdown measures, the government's most powerful weapon issued under the declaration of a state of emergency to curb the spread of the highly contagious coronavirus.

But the lockdown, which froze economic activities, has been lifted and the government has kept stimulating the economy since April through various financial aid programmes.

The state's economic restoration efforts continued into the third quarter, which ends next month.

"At this point," Mr Supant said, "what I can't tell is whether the fourth quarter will be better than the third one."

The answer will depend on the outcome of economic stimulus packages, including the 3,000-baht cash handout scheme, for which the government subsidises 50% of purchases, up to 50 baht per day, for individual customers spending 100 baht.

The offer of 3,000-baht per person targets 10 million people who will be encouraged to buy goods from small retailers during the final quarter of the year.

While agreeing with the latest subsidy, Mr Supant said the 3,000-baht amount may "not be powerful enough" and the government needs similar co-payment measures to stimulate bigger spending.

The FTI chairman agrees with the government's plan to grant special visas to foreign tourists who plan long-stay visits in Thailand. Despite worries over a chance of a second outbreak if the country allows their entry, Mr Supant believes Thailand is equipped with adequate health measures to control any outbreaks.

Rare reports of domestic infections over the past three months show the strength of Thai public health policies, he said.

Thailand is not going to face the pandemic with little or no experience as the country did earlier this year, Mr Supant said. The public is braced for the disease under the perception that the coronavirus can be contained without a need for a total lockdown.

"The first outbreak alerted people and hospitals [to the danger]," he said. "I think we're well prepared for the second wave."

Mr Supant said the government needs to earn revenue from foreign tourists and the fourth quarter will be the right time.

"People in Scandinavian countries want to leave because it's very cold in the winter," he said, adding that many of them have second homes in various tourist spots in Thailand but cannot enter the country.

Thailand needs quality tourists, those with good financial status, to help spend money in the country, and the Scandinavians "want to return to their homes", Mr Supant said.

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