Thailand's digital industry value is expected to climb 1.2% to 655.6 billion baht this year and surge 12.9% in 2021, driven by digital transformation, 5G tech and the adoption of artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things (IoT), says the Digital Economy Promotion Agency (Depa).
Depa, in partnership with the IMC Institute, conducted a 2017-19 survey of the country's digital industry and made three-year predictions, starting with this year. It looked into five core areas: software, hardware/smart devices, digital services, digital content and big data.
Kasititorn Pooparadai, senior executive vice-president of Depa, said hardware/smart devices will see the biggest market value among the five areas this year at 268.9 billion baht, followed by digital services (204.2 billion baht), software (133.2 billion baht), digital content (34.2 billion baht) and big data (14.9 billion baht).
But hardware/smart devices value is projected to drop 10.1% from 299.3 billion last year, pressured by the economic downturn, a sharp reduction in device imports and a lack of attractive new devices, particularly IoT equipment, Mrs Kasititorn said.
The software segment is headed for a 1.2% drop, as the revenue mostly goes to foreign firms.
IMC executive director Thanachart Numnonda said the digital services sector is likely to see the biggest growth this year with a 20.5% rise, buoyed by the pandemic and lockdown measures as individuals and business gravitate towards online platforms.
Digital services include e-commerce, fintech and the electronic versions of advertising, transactions and entertainment.
"More traditional businesses are moving towards online channels," Mr Thanachart said. "There is a big shift in this regard, particularly in retail business. Digital services will continue to grow to 258.4 billion baht in 2022."
Big data is another field with growth potential, he said. It's expected to grow by 13.2% from 2019 to 2020, with a similar growth rate between 2020 and 2021.
From 2021 to 2022, big data will grow by 10% to reach 18.6 billion baht as businesses rely on data analytics for customer insight, Mr Thanachart said.
Digital content is expected to grow by 10.1% to 34.2 billion baht this year, by 15% to 39.4 billion baht in 2021 and by 14.5% to 45.1 billion baht in 2022.
If there is no massive second wave of the pandemic, Thailand could see a digital industry rebound with 12.9% growth to 739.9 billion baht in 2021, Mr Thanachart said, leaping to 813.4 billion baht the following year.
"In the worst-case scenario, growth could be at least 5%," he said.
According to a survey of digital industry personnel in Thailand, the number of people engaged in digital services soared 455% from 12,799 in 2018 to 71,054 in 2019, thanks to the growth of delivery and ride-hailing services.
Personnel in the big data segment, however, fell by 22.4% to 18,509 in 2019.
"There are demands for skilled tech labour, and we see a lot of potential university students, but a smaller percentage of them follow through with a tech degree, which further narrows the labour pool," Mr Thanachart said.
Depa is trying to raise awareness of digital literacy and provide necessary training by developing people with specific skill sets to increase the employment pool, he said.