Myanmar's national elections are set to go ahead in just over four weeks even though the country is reeling from a second wave of Covid-19 that shows no signs of abating any time soon.
The pandemic has paralysed most of the country, raising significant questions about the efficacy of conducting the polls and casting doubts on their credibility.
Campaigning has been halted in most of the country. The media cannot effectively cover the elections because of travel restrictions -- and international election observers have been effectively denied access, while local monitors are severely hampered.
Most opposition political parties are complaining that the Covid crisis has given the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) and its charismatic leader Aung San Suu Kyi an unfair advantage.
Many Myanmar voters, however, seem undaunted by the gravity of the current situation and are eager to vote, in what many analysts and diplomats see as a referendum on the government's last five years in office.
"I am eager to vote on Election Day because I want the next government to change our education system and to reduce commodity prices," Poe Pwint Phyu, a 31-year-old medical supplies representative, told Asia Focus.
"And I will certainly vote for the NLD because I hope Suu's next government will fill the gaps our country so dearly needs," she added.
As of the end of last week, Covid cases and deaths were still soaring: over 20 people a day are dying, while the number of people diagnosed with the virus each day was approaching 1,000, according to health officials. As recently as Aug 27, Myanmar had fewer than 100 officially reported cases; last Friday its total was 14,383.
All states and regions in the country -- except tiny Kayah state which borders Mae Hong Son in Thailand -- have reported cases, though the majority of the incidents and deaths are in Yangon -- the country's commercial capital and most populous city.
Earlier, China locked down the city of Ruili in Yunnan province, a major land-border crossing point with Myanmar, after two Covid cases were discovered -- severely disrupting cross-border trade. Meanwhile, in a bid to prevent a further spread of infections, Thailand has stepped up security patrols along its 2,000-kilometre shared border with Myanmar.
Myanmar now has the fourth-highest number of confirmed coronavirus cases among the 10 Asean countries and is third in deaths with 321, far behind the Philippines (5,562) and Indonesia (10,856).
STRICT LOCKDOWN
Two weeks ago, Yangon went into strict lockdown in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus. Ten days earlier, all domestic flights were cancelled. Residents in the three largest metropolitan areas -- Mandalay, the capital Nay Pyi Taw and Yangon -- have been banned from leaving their cities. Checkpoints are in place on highways. There is an eerie silence on city streets although supermarkets and convenience stores are still open.
In Yangon, movement between townships has been banned. People are allowed out only to buy food or seek medical treatment -- and then only with a government-issued QR pass. Work-from-home orders are in effect for offices and factories in Yangon, except for those deemed to be essential workers. This includes those working in banks, the food industry and health services.
All garment factories have been temporarily closed until further notice. Journalists are complaining that they have been confined to their quarters and all newspapers and magazines have stopped printing hard copies.
"Our rules and regulations are not meant to restrict people," Aung San Suu Kyi said in a televised speech introducing the new lockdown measures.
"We intend to contain the disease," the state counsellor and de facto leader of the country pledged.
Unlike earlier this year when Covid first emerged, people are abiding by the regulations and heeding the state counsellor's warnings. "As a Yangon resident, I see the government restrictions as somewhat necessary in order to contain the virus though there are some drawbacks on social and economic activities," 34-year-old communication consultant Ma San Maw told Asia Focus.
"As far as I know, Aung San Suu Kyi is really trying hard to control and prevent the spread of the virus. I really think this government is doing a good job for our country and our people," she said.
Every night now, the state counsellor is on television, discussing a plethora of national issues and providing critical leadership in the fight to contain Covid.
"I want the people to understand how much importance our union government has given to this matter, and how much effort is being put in for the health and security of the people, to the best of our ability," she said in one of her recent televised addresses.
But of course, it is very difficult to distinguish between her role as the country's key civilian leader and that of the ruling party's main figurehead seeking re-election with the polls only weeks away. These elections are now undoubtedly Covid elections -- the pandemic is dominating everything, making Aung San Suu Kyi and her NLD outright favourites to win.
"Covid has changed the landscape of the election," said the analyst and entrepreneur Zaw Naing. "Her presence on Facebook is a massive win … she's everywhere -- on social media, television and the front page of the government newspapers. It's all you see," he added.
"It will almost certainly seal the deal for these elections, as there's little room left to move on the campaign trail -- with social distancing requirements and now the ban on travel and other constraints -- social media will play a critical role, even more so than in the previous election," the head of Mandalay Technology told Asia Focus.
DIGITAL CAMPAIGNING
In fact, the Union Election Commission (UEC), which controls the electoral process, has recently banned campaigning in areas where stay-at-home orders are in effect. But more generally door-to door campaigning and political rallies are limited in this campaign -- unlike in 2015.
"This is an election that is really being fought digitally -- on social media," said Felix Haas, a business consultant and analyst based in Yangon.
From the very early stages of the emergence of coronavirus in Myanmar back in March, Aung San Suu Kyi has shown strong leadership, reinforced later by the astute use of social media -- on Facebook, her lectures and discussions have demonstrated the government and the state counsellor's command of the situation.
Her high profile left the other political parties flat-footed and bewildered, and it has left the country's military -- who are an integral part of the power structure -- sidelined.
"As the face of the government's very effective response to Covid, she has done amazingly well. Her arrival on social media is good leadership and it's been remarkably effective," Mr Haas told Asia Focus.
Her speeches are retweeted on social media by NLD supporters and sympathisers. They are also circulated on a recently formed Covid chat group with more than 1.5 million official followers on Viber, a messaging app with more than 5 million users in the country, he pointed out.
While many people are worried about the future -- and the lasting impact that the Covid crisis may have -- it is not deterring them from casting their votes.
"I do feel awkward and worried about the restrictions and the long-term effect of Covid," said Aung Zaw Win, a 64-year-old English teacher. "They all adversely affect lifestyle, flatten the economy and damage physical and mental health.
"Covid causes untimely deaths, and then prevents funeral processions and attendance at the funeral. It's challenging the country's social order and social life," he complained.
For that reason, he told Asia Focus, he was "excited and eager to vote" and would vote for the NLD. "I expect the next NLD government to rewrite a new constitution to replace the present [pro-military] 2008 constitution."
But the opposition parties are demanding that the polls, scheduled for Nov 8, be postponed. More than 20 parties, including the largest opposition party, the military-affiliated Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), recently asked the commission to postpone the elections. The NLD, though, is determined to press ahead.
Party spokesman Myo Nyunt told local journalists: "Postponing the election when it is uncertain how the situation might develop in the future will simply result in more problems, including a political crisis on top of the current public health and economic problems." The election commission has ruled out a delay. "We have no plans to postpone the entire election, or the election in any constituency, due to Covid-19. We will arrange for people to vote safely, and we are discussing [measures] with the Ministry of Health and Sport," said a senior official in an online briefing.
MILITARY KEPT AT BAY
The pandemic poses problems for the NLD: under the 2008 constitution, power in Myanmar is delicately balanced between the civilian government and the military, which automatically receives one-quarter of the seats in the upper and lower houses of Parliament.
So although the pandemic may give the ruling party an enormous electoral advantage, delaying the polls may pose even greater problems, leading to a potential constitutional crisis -- especially if a vote cannot take place before the end of January, when the new parliamentarians are due to convene for their session, and prepare for the election of the next president and the new government.
There is no consensus among political parties on how to resolve a constitutional crisis if elections are postponed beyond the current parliamentary term. The USDP says a state of emergency would be required in the event of a long postponement, which could lead to the temporary control by the National Defence and Security Council (NDSC), with the commander-in-chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing taking command of the executive administration: something Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD could not accept.
During the last five years the administration has studiously resisted declaring a national state of emergency to avoid the army chief potentially taking over the country. In fact, Aung San Suu Kyi's government has avoided even calling an NDSC meeting since it took office in April 2015 -- to avoid any potential military takeover.
So the forthcoming elections are almost certain to go ahead, and although they may be flawed, the general public is hoping that they will represent a step forward on the road to genuine democracy, inclusiveness and good governance.
"I hope the next government will give priority to reviving sustainable economic development, improving environment protection and raising peoples' standard of living," said Poe Pwint Phyu.
"For the start of a new era of democracy, the next government [cabinet] must be formed with a group of technocrats in charge to formulate evidence-based policymaking -- instead of opting for loyal people because of political reasons," she added.
But for some voters, no matter who wins the elections, there won't be any positive changes. "No matter who is competing in your constituency -- nothing will change because they will not have any real authority," complained Myo Min, a 27-year-old research assistant.
"The government remains largely a dictatorship, complicit in committing cruel actions and injustice: this won't change through the pretense of choosing this government. Democracy remains unattainable until the next government is transparent and respects human rights," he told Asia Focus.
At a Glance...
Key facts about the general election scheduled for Nov 8 in Myanmar:
More than 7,000 candidates from 93 registered political parties are running for a total of 1,157 seats in both chambers of the Union Parliament and in seven states and seven regional parliaments.
Voters will choose 330 representatives (out of 440) in the Pyithu Hluttaw or House of Representatives and 168 members (out of 224) in the Amyotha Hluttaw or House of Nationalities, the upper chamber. The remaining seats (25%) in each chamber are reserved for the military.
As well, voters will be choosing 659 representatives in state and regional assemblies.
Ethnic affairs ministers will also be elected by their designated electorates on the same day, although only selected ethnic minorities in particular states and regions will be entitled to vote for them.
More than 37 million citizens are eligible to vote, 5 million of whom are first-time voters.
Elected officials will take office sometime around late January. For a majority, a party or coalition(s) will require 221 seats in the House of Representatives and 113 in the House of Nationalities.
In the 2015 general election — the first openly contested poll held in the country since 1990 — the National League for Democracy recorded a landslide victory. It won 86% of all parliamentary seats: 235 in the House of Representatives and 135 in the House of Nationalities, well above the 67% supermajority needed to outvote the combined pro-military bloc in the selection of the president.