The US presidential election on Nov 3, pitting US President Donald Trump against Democrat Joe Biden, should be closely watched around the world as it may shape the structure of the US-China tech war, along with the trade and investment in technological fields.
The Trump administration has been tough on Chinese tech giants, such as Huawei, WeChat and TikTok, claiming there are security concerns about American citizens' data falling into the hands of the Chinese government.
Many observers do not believe the US-China tech tussle will change course drastically regardless of the winner, but the election provides a momentary glimpse into differing global trade approaches.
There is no doubt a new US administration would affect Thailand to a certain degree.
As usual, Thailand is looking to work with both countries, aiming to gain benefits as China and the US continue their low-grade scuffle.
ASEAN FOCUS
Misiek Jan Piskorski, dean of IMD South East Asia and professor of strategy and innovation at IMD Business School, said the outcome of the US election would dictate the course the US takes in dealing with the pandemic, which could have a resounding impact on the economy.
"Assuming a change in administration, we can expect more containment of the pandemic, which will allow the US economy and the world economy to grow again," he said.
This growth would open additional sources of funding and demand for tech products, which would benefit all tech companies across the world, said Mr Piskorski.
He said the trade war between China and the US has led China to start investing in areas outside the US, including Asean.
"China's ability to contain the outbreak and consequent increase in GDP will only help China focus more on our region, and Thailand too," said Mr Piskorski.
"Entrepreneurs in Thailand are in position to start taking advantage of these additional funds to grow the tech scene here."
It remains to be seen if the US-China trade war on technology will intensify if Mr Biden becomes the president, he said.
If there is a de-escalation, China could redirect resources towards the US and away from Asean, said Mr Piskorski.
"The time to take advantage of the situation is now," he said.
Most technology companies have significant fixed costs of operation, but often it does not cost them much to service an additional customer, resulting in significant profit on every new customer, said Mr Piskorski.
The secret to becoming successful in tech is to get many customers.
"As a tech company you cannot think about only succeeding in Thailand. You need to have a regional strategy to grow the user base," he said.
"This means you will want to expand to Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam."
The tech industry is very broad, so it is useful to separate it into segments.
"For consumer internet and consumer software, we are going to see increased dominance of established tech giants, such as Google, Facebook, and Alibaba," Mr Piskorski said.
"Locally grown giants such as Grab and Gojek, as well as Line, will continue to deepen their relationship with the millions of users they have in the region."
He advises the Thai tech industry to focus on developing startups that build products that can use the massive distribution reach of these platforms.
In the non-consumer segment of software, there are vast opportunities for building business-to-business (B2B) startups that help large existing companies in the region to accelerate their digital transformation and improve their cybersecurity.
"In the hardware segment of tech, we need to start investing more in basic technologies to develop new expertise that can be commercialised via startups," Mr Piskorski said.
TikTok, controlled by Chinese firm ByteDance, has developed advanced technology.
BIDEN = LESS CONFLICT
Suphan Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), said if Mr Biden wins the election, the US-China trade war is likely to be less intense and his administration could focus on economic stimulus, which would be a boon for global trade, including Thai exports.
He said Mr Biden disagrees with trade barriers, such as higher import tariffs, and stands ready to improve international relations.
Mr Suphan said Thailand would benefit from a Biden administration because of trade policy changes as there are Thai businesses in supply chains connected with Chinese manufacturers that export products to the US, such as computers, computer components and equipment as well as circuit boards.
If Mr Trump wins the election, the existing economic and international trade policy would continue, though perhaps with less stringent import tax measures than in his first term, when Mr Trump pursued an "America First" campaign that subsequently strained the US's relationship with other countries, particularly China, he said.
"Local industries that have supply chains connected with Chinese products exported to the US would face instability," said Mr Suphan, referring to the trade situation after Mr Trump wins.
The trade war could prompt Chinese IT product manufacturers to relocate to Thailand as a new base for production, and this could be a boon for the local electronics industry, he said.
In fact both the US and China, in the face of trade friction, may look for products elsewhere and this could be an opportunity for Thailand, said Mr Suphan.
For example, more electronics and rubber products from Thailand are likely to be exported to the US, while more agricultural produce could be shipped to China, he said.
BALANCE SEEKING
Thanachart Numnonda, executive director of the IMC Institute, a local research and tech training firm, said China has thrived in the tech sector over the past few years, becoming a global powerhouse.
This makes it harder for the US to scale back the trade war with China even if Mr Biden wins, he said.
"Regardless of who wins the election, the US-China trade war, particularly concerning technology, is likely to continue because the US president will not allow China to grow unchecked," said Mr Thanachart.
China has various advanced technologies that could compete with the US, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and 5G.
Despite major challenges from US restrictions, Chinese tech behemoth Huawei still ranked second in global smartphone sales in this year's second quarter, according to research firm Gartner.
"China's domestic market is still massive enough for Huawei, while ByteDance's TikTok has strong advanced technology, particularly AI," he said.
Thailand has relied on technologies from both the US and China for a long time.
"We should continue to find balance in tech usage," he said.
China is investing heavily in Asean, with Thailand being treated as a priority and potential springboard for Chinese firms to reach other countries in the region, said Mr Thanachart.
Huawei recently established its Asean headquarters in Thailand.
Huawei and Tencent, an internet giant from China, both have local cloud data centres in Thailand.
Thailand can leverage relations with China in terms of technology collaboration, particularly AI technology transfer and IT skill development, as Thailand is geographically closer to China's tech and innovation hub Shenzhen than the US's Silicon Valley, he said.
Mr Thanachart said if the new US president ratchets up the US-China trade war and bans Chinese tech equipment, China will move to investing in other regions, mainly Asean.
"This could be the time for Thailand to latch onto the opportunity," he said.