Recap: Emerging market stocks and currencies had their best weekly gains in five months as Democrat Joe Biden inched closer to winning the US presidency. But the dollar and US bond yields fell on bets that a divided US Congress would make government borrowing harder, leaving it up to the Fed to provide stimulus.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,191.44 and 1,270.22 points on the week and closed at 1,260.08, up 5.5% from the previous week, its best weekly performance of the year, in daily turnover averaging 59 billion baht.
Institutional investors were net buyers of 8.16 billion baht and brokerage firms bought 2.23 billion. Foreign investors were net sellers of 5.55 billion baht and retail investors sold 4.85 billion worth of shares.
Newsmakers: Joe Biden pulled ahead in Georgia and was nursing narrow leads in Arizona and Nevada as the presidential ballot count dragged on in a handful of states, while President Donald Trump stepped up his claims of electoral fraud and vowed to challenge the process in the courts.
- The United States formally left the Paris Agreement on Wednesday, nearly four years after President Trump vowed to pull out of the international climate change pact. Mr Biden has vowed he would immediately return if he becomes president.
- Indonesia fell into recession for the first time in 22 years in the third quarter as the Covid pandemic battered consumption and business activity.
- Germany has led a further tightening of coronavirus restrictions in Europe that have triggered anger and frustration across the continent, while the Covid crisis in the United States deepened, with new daily cases topping 100,000.
- A year of turmoil in Malaysia is coming down to a budget vote in the next few weeks that will double as a test of confidence in Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, whose seven-month-old administration is hanging by a thread.
- The initial public offering of the Chinese fintech powerhouse Ant Group could be delayed by at least six months and its valuation sharply reduced after Beijing abruptly halted its trading debut last week. Alarmed by what it sees as growing risk in the online lending business, the government is now drafting regulations that investors say would force Ant to rethink its business model.
- The Dutch government on Tuesday approved a multi-billion-euro coronavirus bailout for the struggling airline KLM after pilots agreed to a five-year pay-cut deal.
- The Thai government insists the suspension of trade benefits for certain products by the US under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) will cause losses of only US$19 million or 600 million baht. Initial reports said up to $817 million worth of goods would be affected. Washington acted because Thailand has restricted imports of US pork because of chemical concerns.
- Foreign businesses have called on the government to allow foreigners to take up to 100% control of businesses on List 3 of the Foreign Business Act, especially those in digital services. They say it will help lure foreign investment at a time when the pandemic has sharply cut activity.
- Low-cost carriers are ready to lower domestic airfares after the cabinet approved the extension of the jet fuel tax reduction.
- The Tourism and Sports Ministry plans more promotions in hopes of seeing as many as 10 million domestic trips per month during high season following cabinet approval of more financial aid measures on Tuesday.
- Foreign direct investment applications fell 29% in the first nine months of this year to 118.5 billion baht, as investors were deterred by the pandemic.
- Thailand's cross-border trade, including transit trade, fell by 4.9% year-on-year in the first nine months.
- Shippers forecast exports to recover to 5% growth next year, helped by an improving global economy and world trade.
- Total assets under management in Thailand's mutual fund industry are expected to decrease by more than 10% because of lower asset valuations from the economic slowdown and outflows from long-term equity funds, says the Association of Investment Management Companies.
- Gold traders estimate prices will increase no matter who wins the US presidential election, as the US Federal Reserve is expected to continue its aggressive monetary stimulus programme.
- The Board of Investment approved new incentives for electric vehicle and battery makers following the expiration of the previous package in 2018. The government wants EVs to account for 30% of total annual car production, or 750,000 units, by 2030.
- The housing price index in Greater Bangkok fell further in the third quarter as developers continued using discounts and promotions to boost sales, according to the Real Estate Information Center.
- Thai banks' profitability will deteriorate as interest rates will stay low for a prolonged period as the central bank maintains a loose monetary policy, says Moody's Investors Service.
- The low-cost carrier Nok Airlines Plc has received permission from the Central Bankruptcy Court to embark on the rehabilitation process, with a new business plan scheduled to be presented in January.
- PTT Exploration and Production Plc (PTTEP) says it cannot access the Erawan gas field in the Gulf of Thailand as it prepares to take over an operation from US-based Chevron Corp, because the latter is challenging a government regulation that it pay decommissioning costs when its concession ends.
- Berli Jucker (BJC), the SET-listed consumer goods maker and owner of Big C Supercenter, is investing 1 billion baht to expand the production capacity of Cellox tissue paper by 50% from 46,500 tonnes in 2019, aiming to sustain sales and become the market leader in the 7-billion-baht tissue market.
- SCG Packaging Plc (SCGP) has acquired 100% of the shares in Go-Pak, a UK-based food service solution provider, in a move to strengthen its customer base abroad and earn more revenue.
- SET-listed Thai Union Group Plc (TU) saw its third-quarter net profit rise by 50% year-on-year, a quarterly record, due to strong sales growth and reduced losses in Red Lobster Seafood Co, the company's restaurant arm.
Coming up: Germany will release September trade figures on Monday. On Tuesday, Australia will release October business confidence, Britain will announce October unemployment, China will announce October inflation and Germany will release the November economic sentiment index.
- Australia will release November consumer confidence on Wednesday. Thailand and Britain will announce third-quarter GDP data on Thursday and Britain will also announce September trade figures. Due the same day is US October inflation data. The EU will announce third-quarter GDP data on Friday.
Stocks to watch: Thanachart Securities recommends accumulating shares of firms expected to report good results in Q1 of 2021, among them COM7, SAWAD, TQM and RS, CBG, PT, KTC, KCE, HANA and DCC. Large-cap stocks expected to benefit from the recovery include KBANK, PTT, AOT, MINT, SCB, CPALL, PTTGC, IVL, BBL and GULF.
- Capital Nomura Securities recommends an investment theme based on prospects of a Democratic US election victory. Suggested picks are GULF, BCPG, RATCH, KSL and TVO in green energy and TOP, SPCG, IVL and VNT among cyclical commodities. Other recommendations include CPF, TU OSP, INTUCH, ADVANC, BBL, TISCO, KCE, HANA, DELTA and SMT.
Technical view: Capital Nomura sees support at 1,245 points and resistance at 1,282. Phillip Securities sees support at 1,246 and resistance at 1,280.