New hope in a post-Trump world

New hope in a post-Trump world

Following Thai politics is making me increasingly frustrated, and I'm losing hope that things will ever get back to normal. Case in point: not only do we have a cabinet minister who served four years in an Australian prison for drug trafficking, but now one of his wives has been appointed to a position in the Prime Minister's Office.

Not surprisingly, this latest bout of nepotism has raised an uproar and will widen the gap between the government and youth-led protesters in the search for common ground to find a way out of ongoing conflicts.

Thankfully, I have been able to console myself with the thought that the international outlook should improve as a result of the US election. Encouragingly for Asia, some of the first phone calls that President-elect Joe Biden made were to the leaders of Japan, South Korea and Australia. Clearly he intends to shore up relations with key US allies in this region.

In Japan, Mr Biden's belief in personal relationships will be vital to restoring the confidence in the US that has deteriorated since Donald Trump came to power in early 2017. His humble background bodes well for a relationship with Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who also has working-class roots.

In their 15-minute conversation, the two leaders agreed to cooperate on fighting the coronavirus and climate change. Mr Suga said the Japan-US alliance, while needing strengthening, remained the cornerstone of his country's diplomacy and security, and was essential for the peace and prosperity of an increasingly unstable region.

The Japanese prime minister envisions a "free and open Indo-Pacific" led by Japan and the US, and said he looked forward to meeting Mr Biden in February in Washington, Covid permitting.

The two sides also committed to coordinate responses to China's advances in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, as well as North Korea's nuclear development. Japan will closely watch how Mr Biden approaches China in the face of ongoing tension between Washington and Beijing.

When Mr Biden served as vice president under Barack Obama from 2009-16, the US and Asean often spoke with one voice on the future of the region. Mr Obama established a permanent US mission to Asean, met regularly with all Asean leaders, deepened security ties, forged a strategic partnership with Indonesia, and increased intelligence sharing with major Asian partners about Chinese ambitions.

Observers expect Mr Biden to appoint seasoned diplomatic professionals in regional capitals who can coordinate Washington's efforts with Southeast Asia. Regional alliances will become more of a priority than they were for Mr Trump, who skipped the Asean summit two years in a row.

"We may also see more US appearances in Asean meetings. I think the approach of (the) Biden administration will be more of 'neo-institutionalism', which is different from the realist approach of (the) Trump administration," Trang Pham Ngoc Minh, a lecturer at the University of Vietnam, told Nikkei Asia.

China-US relations could also be steered back onto a more constructive, strategic and rational path. Refocusing on the two giants' "rivalry partnership" would not be a bad thing.

Mr Biden clearly understands how China has changed along with the US and the world order over the past four years. He has spoken with moral clarity on Hong Kong, highlighted the importance of Taiwan, and decried acts of genocide in Xinjiang.

As his top advisers generally are sceptical of China's ambitions, they are committed to strengthening America's relationships with allies and restoring the promotion of democracy and values to the core of US foreign policy. Doing so, they believe, will strengthen America's capacity to compete with China.

Under a Biden presidency, America will re-enter the Paris Agreement on climate and possibly the Iranian nuclear deal framework. It will also roll back Mr Trump's threat to stop funding the World Health Organization (WHO), and recalibrate its approach to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which has been virtually boycotted by Mr Trump.

A Biden administration might also seek to negotiate new trade and investment frameworks with Europe and Japan. In all these areas, China should find substantial common ground with the US. That is critical as the world faces substantial risks of a punishing recession.

In any case, after four years of manic tweeting, US policy will now be made and communicated in a more orderly manner and with more consideration for friends and allies. The form and substance of American diplomacy will improve. All this is very welcome.

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