Recap: Global stocks rallied to record highs, spurred by recent vaccine progress, the start of US President-elect Joe Biden's transition to power and hopes for further economic stimulus measures.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,392.42 and 1,444.53 points this week before closing yesterday at 1,437.78 points, up 3.5% from the previous week, in heavy daily turnover averaging 96.55 billion baht.
Foreign investors were net buyers of 5.86 billion baht and brokerages purchased 2.14 billion. Retail investors were net sellers of 7.82 billion baht and institutional investors offloaded 186.57 million baht in shares.
Newsmakers: The Dow closed above 30,000 points for the first time on Tuesday as receding US political uncertainty and hopes for coronavirus vaccines offset worries over spiking Covid-19 cases.
- Covid-19 vaccine emergency approvals are around the corner, makers are preparing to ship millions of doses -- and experts are trying to reassure the public that the record-breaking speed of development hasn't compromised safety.
- Americans by the millions defied pleas from state and local officials to stay home for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, triggering fresh warnings from health officials with the release of vaccines still weeks away.
- Foreign investors are pouring money into major Asian equity markets outside of China at the fastest pace in seven years as vaccine successes add to the global risk-on mood.
- Economists have slashed their 2020 outlook for the Philippines by more than for any other Southeast Asian nation as it struggles with one of the region's worst coronavirus outbreaks.
- The Japanese government is resisting calls to scrap its popular "Go-to-Travel" subsidy scheme, saying there have been only 197 Covid infections among the more than 40 million people who have taken part in the programme.
- Australia on Friday said it was "extremely disappointed" in China's decision to impose preliminary tariffs on Australian wine, further escalating diplomatic tensions between the two countries.
- Thailand's economy will take at least two years to recoup the 9% of GDP lost to the pandemic crisis, says Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith.
- The country's economic recovery momentum gained traction thanks to quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the third quarter, with exports and public investment expected to be the main growth drivers for next year, says Krungsri Research.
- The tourism sector may have to wait until 2022 to see "normal" revenue, described as 80% of pre-pandemic levels, as major markets are reluctant to ease travel curbs until vaccine distribution succeeds, says the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).
- Thailand's retail industry is likely to see a lower contraction this year, to 6%, from 7.8% forecast previously, thanks to stimulus measures such the Shop and Payback tax rebate and the government's co-payment spending scheme, says Voralak Tulaphorn, chief marketing officer of The Mall Group.
- The second phase of the popular co-payment scheme, under which the government subsidises 50% of food and goods purchased at small shops to a daily limit of 150 baht, will cover as many people as possible, says a senior Finance Ministry official. The first phase is scheduled to end on Dec 31.
- The contraction in the dollar value of Thai exports widened to 6.7% year-on-year in October, from 3.9% in September. Exports for the first 10 months are down 7.3% to $192.37 billion, while imports are down 14.6%, resulting in a trade surplus of $22.67 billion.
- Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith has asked the Customs Department to accelerate completion of the national single window (NSW) system next year to facilitate trade flows.
- The Digital Economy and Society (DES) Ministry is seeking to have all e-commerce platforms registered with the Electronic Transactions Development Agency (ETDA) to ensure cybersecurity in the 3-trillion-baht industry.
- The DES Ministry aims to use a centralised data-sharing government platform by 2023 as part of efforts to improve public services within a single window for data access.
- The Thai National Shippers' Council is urging financial authorities to manage the exchange rate to keep the baht at around 31 to the dollar for trade competitiveness.
- Thai tourists are keen to travel by taking advantage of promotional campaigns and have become price-conscious consumers when venturing out again during the post-pandemic period, according to a Booking.com survey.
- Bangkok Bank (BBL) plans to increase its customer base in the upper-income segment for credit card loans next year to beef up risk management against rising bad loans and swelling household debt.
Coming up: Thailand will release current account, private consumption and investment and coincident index updates on Monday. China will release the November NBS manufacturing PMI.
- Thailand will release November manufacturing PMI and business confidence on Tuesday, and China will release the November Caixin manufacturing PMI.
- Japan will release November consumer confidence on Wednesday, and Australia will release October trade figures on Thursday.
- Thailand will release November inflation and consumer confidence on Friday. Canada and the US will release October trade figures and the US will announce November non-farm payrolls.
Stocks to watch: Capital Nomura Securities has a positive outlook on banking stocks after the Bank of Thailand permitted dividend payments, while the broker expects reserves for bad loans to decrease in 2021. It recommends speculative trading in SCB and accumulating KBANK and BBL. Commodity-focussed stocks with prospects for solid growth amid easing geopolitical tensions are SCGP, IVL, VNT, KCE, DELTA, KSL, TVO, CPF, GFPT, TTA, PSL, RCL and BANPU.
UOB Kay Hian Securities recommends high-dividend and property stocks affected by market volatility from profit-taking, as the SET Index has rallied more than 200 points this month. Top picks in property and infrastructure are AP, SPALI, LH, CPNREIT, DIFF, JASIF, BTSGIF, SUPER, SSP, WHAUP, EASTW, ADVANC and INTUCH.
Technical view: DBS Vickers Securities Thailand sees support at 1,380 points and resistance at 1,450. Maybank Kim Eng Securities Thailand sees support at 1,400 and resistance at 1,450.
