Thailand's mobile service revenue fell 12.6% in 2020, weighed down by the impact of the pandemic on mobile subscription growth, while the country's 5G subscription numbers are expected to surpass 4G by 2025, says GlobalData, a data analytics and consulting firm headquartered in London.
According to GlobalData's Thailand Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report, mobile subscriptions in Thailand are estimated to decline by 2.1% in 2020 due to "the country's challenging economic environment amid the Covid-19 outbreak, which has led to a slowdown in new subscriber acquisitions".
The report said free mobile services and extra mobile data allowances provided at no additional cost by operators to support subscribers amid the pandemic also pulled down mobile average revenue per user (ARPU) levels during the year.
GlobalData expects mobile service revenue would pick up and move in "an upward trend from 2021", with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% over 2020-25, driven by the recovery in mobile subscription growth and anticipated rise in the adoption of high ARPU yielding 5G services during the period.
Anshika Gandotra, a telecom analyst at GlobalData, said although 4G could remain the leading mobile technology in Thailand by subscription share until 2024, "5G could surpass 4G subscriptions and account for 56.2% of total mobile subscriptions by 2025".
This would come as major mobile operators in Thailand continue to expand 5G networks while more 5G-enabled handsets would be available in the market, she said.
She said Advanced Info Service (AIS), the country's largest mobile operator by subscribers, is expected to maintain the leading position in the market through 2025, supported by investment in 5G network expansion driving the 5G user base.
According to the report, Thailand's total telecommunications and pay-TV service revenue was estimated to reach US$12.8 billion in 2020 and will surge to $13.7 billion in 2025, as mobile data, fixed broadband and pay TV will play a vital role in boosting growth in the telecom market over the next five years.
The country's fixed broadband revenue is expected to see 0.6% CAGR over 2020-25, crucially driven by steady growth in the digital subscriber line segment and robust growth projected in the fibre segment, the report indicated.
Mobile data service, which contributes to the biggest revenue for the total telecom service segment in Thailand, would CAGR for revenue of 6.2% over 2020-25, propelled by growing consumption of online video content and social networking apps.