Shares of aviation, healthcare and tourism stocks are expected to rise following the Thai government's policy of allowing travellers with vaccine passports to enter Thailand without a mandatory 14-day quarantine upon arrival, according to research from KTBST Securities.
However, investors must follow news on the progress of mass vaccination programmes around the world as the starting dates for mass immunisation in many countries, including Thailand, remain uncertain.
Analysts from KTBST expect 50,000 doses of vaccines will be imported to Thailand in February, followed by 800,000 doses in March and 1 million in April.
The government plans to inoculate a total of 35 million people this year, or around 50% of the population, with the 70 million vaccine doses it is procuring from Beijing-based Sinovac Biotech and AstraZeneca.
"We believe three groups of people will be prioritised in the vaccination process: tourists and business people; foreign patients seeking treatment in Thailand; and the elderly," the research noted.
As the policy is expected to attract travellers from these three groups to Thailand, sectors that will benefit from the policy are aviation, healthcare and tourism.
KTBST identified Airports of Thailand (AOT) and Minor International Plc (MINT) among the stocks it believes are likely to rise once the policy gets underway.
KTBST's most positive outlook is for airlines and airports, as they will benefit directly from the revival of tourism and the resumption of international travel.
The research house expects international flights to generate higher profits than domestic flights this year.
According to the research, AOT is likely to be the biggest beneficiary, as revenues from the airport fee or passenger service charge (PSC) on international flights is high, while Asia Aviation (AAV) is expected to benefit from the reopening of routes among Asean countries and to China.
Aviation businesses may also receive additional support measures from the government to help the industry recover faster.
In addition to aviation, stocks in the healthcare sector such as hospitals that gain most of their revenue from foreign patients are also expected to benefit from the policy. Among them are Bumrungrad Hospital Plc (BH) and Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Plc (BDMS).
Estimates suggest that 58% of Bumrungrad Hospital's patients are foreign, while 30% of patients at hospitals operated by Bangkok Dusit Medical Services are foreign.
KTBST expects more foreign patients will return to these hospitals if they are exempt from having to pay for the additional cost of quarantine, particularly patients from the Middle East and Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.
Tourism is another sector that should bounce back following the implementation of the policy, said the research house.
Erawan Group Plc (ERW) is expected to be the biggest beneficiary in this sector, followed by Central Plaza Hotel Plc (CENTEL) and MINT.