Recap: Global stocks had a volatile week before picking up on Friday. The MSCI World Index steadied after three days of gains. The market is looking ahead to next week's Federal Reserve meeting after the European Central Bank pledged on Thursday to continue with heavy stimulus spending. Emerging markets and Asian shares slid, pressured by coronavirus worries.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,530.62 and 1,563.88 points before closing yesterday at 1,545.10, down 1.86% from the previous week, in daily turnover averaging 72.51 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 8.22 billion baht and brokers bought 973.25 million. Foreign investors were net sellers of 6.2 billion and institutional investors sold 2.99 billion baht worth of shares.
Newsmakers: The US economy's 2021 growth surge likely peaked in the spring, but strong expansion is expected to continue into next year, say economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.
- President Joe Biden on Monday sought to tamp down concern about spiralling prices that threaten to dent the US economic recovery, saying the current inflation rise is "temporary" and not a long-term problem.
- Developing Asia's economic growth this year will be slightly lower than previously projected, the Asian Development Bank said on Tuesday, citing the resurgence of Covid infections in many countries.
- US businesses in Hong Kong fear mainland Chinese internet curbs and want local authorities to commit to the free flow of information, the head of the city's American Chamber of Commerce said Monday.
- The coronavirus vaccine maker Moderna has joined the S&P 500 as the best performing US stock this year with a gain of 180%. The move caps the drugmaker's transformation from an early-stage biotech to a global household name.
- Electric cars reached a milestone in the second quarter, capturing more than one-tenth of new Chinese auto sales for the first time. But other than Tesla, foreign makers have failed to convince Chinese consumers that their EVs match the local competition.
- The Bank of Thailand predicts the government's tougher Covid curbs could reduce GDP this year by between 0.8% and 2%. Asia Plus Securities says GDP may contract again this year as intense lockdown measures and the prospect of a protracted pandemic continue to crush the economy.
- The central bank is debating a reduction in interest rates for some consumer loans amid fears that lenders will reject high-risk borrowers and drive them towards loan sharks.
- The Government Savings Bank (GSB) will suspend principal and interest payments for individual clients for six months, which is expected to cover 750,000 borrowers.
- Toyota Motor Corp has suspended operations at all three of its Thailand plants until Wednesday because of a shortage of parts after the closure of a local supplier because of Covid.
- The Covid surge threatens to keep exports from achieving their 8-10% growth target as more factories are hamstrung by rising infections, says the Federation of Thai Industries.
- Exports in June beat forecasts with a year-on-year rise of 43.8%, albeit from a very low base in 2020.
- The Phuket sandbox recorded 9,358 foreign visitors between July 1 and 21, while room reservations between July and September total 244,703 room nights, generating 534 million baht, says the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).
- Phangnga and Krabi are preparing to welcome back foreign tourists under the "Andaman Sandbox" scheme starting on Aug 1, the TAT said.
- Seven airlines are seeking a combined 5 billion baht in low-interest loans from the government to help weather the effects of the Covid crisis, the Thai Airlines Association said on Wednesday.
- Thai AirAsia views the forced lockdown as jeopardising its financial status as the aviation industry has been struggling without government support for over a year.
- All property sectors, except the industrial and logistics market, should brace for a market slowdown of at least 18 months after economic recovery next year, says the property consultancy JLL.
- Expanded lockdown measures and construction site closures, coupled with low consumer purchasing power, represent a worst-case scenario for the housing market, says the Real Estate Information Center (REIC).
- The worsening pandemic and plunge in advertising budgets are expected to drive down media spending this year by 4% to 72.1 billion baht -- a critical situation for the industry, according to Media Intelligence (MI).
- PTT Group is aiming to scale up battery production capacity to gigawatt level after opening a 1.1-billion-baht factory in Rayong, the first semi-solid battery production facility in Southeast Asia.
- SET-listed Electricity Generating (Egco), a subsidiary of state-run Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat), plans to start importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) by the end of this year to better manage its fuel costs and seek more business opportunities.
- Total Access Communication (DTAC), the country's third-largest mobile operator, saw an increase of 164,000 subscribers in the second quarter, leading to 0.9% quarterly growth of service revenue, excluding interconnection charges, to 14.3 billion baht.
Coming up: The US will release June new home sales and New Zealand will release June trade figures. The US will release June durable goods orders and July consumer confidence on Tuesday.
- Australia will release second-quarter inflation and Canada will release June inflation data on Wednesday, and Germany will release the August consumer outlook. The US Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on Thursday morning Thailand time, and Germany will release July unemployment and inflation data. The same day, the US will release second-quarter GDP and June pending home sales.
- Thailand will release June trade, current account figures, private consumption and investment figures on Friday. Germany will release second-quarter GDP figures, and the euro zone will release July inflation and unemployment.
Stocks to watch: Capital Nomura Securities recommends stocks of firms related to cannabis and hemp with potential to produce new products in the second half this year, including RBF, GUNKUL, STP, KWM, OSP, ICHI and SAPPE. It also recommends stocks that will benefit from baht depreciation, including TU, CPF, ASIAN, NER, XO, SAPPE, HANA and KCE, and suggests avoiding airlines for now.
UOB Kay Hian Securities recommends accumulating secure stocks less affected by the outbreak such as ADVANC, DTAC, FTREIT, WHART, RATCH, EASTW, WHAUP and TTW. Shipping and healthcare equipment plays for short-term speculation include PSL, TTA, RCL, SMD, TM, WINMED and BIZ.
Technical view: Capital Nomura sees support at 1,529 points and resistance at 1,604. Maybank Kim Eng Securities sees support at 1,530 and resistance at 1,580.
