The Government Pension Fund (GPF) views that the global economy will see continued recovery in the second half of this year, which will be a boon to Thai exports.
GPF secretary-general Srikanya Yathip said that such a recovery will be seen more clearly in developed countries.
However, the fund will closely monitor the US plan to taper its qualitative easing (QE), the trend of US policy rates and the direction of the US yield of the 10-year bonds, which all could have a direct impact on global capital markets and financial markets.
Mrs Srikanya said the fund expects the further growth of exports in the fourth quarter, in line with the economic recovery of Thailand's trading partners, and this export growth could result in the baht's appreciation.
The expected stronger baht is also in line with the prospect that Thailand could provide more vaccines to the people and a greater number of foreign tourists are expected next year.
All these factors will help support Thailand's economic recovery.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking last week upgraded the country's GDP growth projection for this year from a range of -1.5% to zero to a range of -0.5% to 1% growth as it believes new daily infections peaked in August.
The committee also adjusted its export growth projection this year to a range of 12-14% from the previous forecast of 10-12%, supported by global economic recovery and improving external demand.
The GPF's main choices of investment plans generated a return of 3.68% (before expenditure) for the fund's members during the first six months of this year.
The top three assets with high returns are commodities with a return of 26.2%, global equity instruments at 13.1% and Thai equity instruments at 9%.
Mrs Srikanya said the high return reflects the fund's strategy of focusing on high growth assets, which have benefited from the economic recovery of major countries, such as the US.
She added that the global investment climate in the second quarter improved, especially in the US and European markets, thanks to stimulus packages by various governments.
This has benefited the prices of commodities in all segments.