Inflation forecast 1.5-2.5% in 2022

Inflation forecast 1.5-2.5% in 2022

A food vendor benefits from high sales at Yaowarat market in Bangkok on Sunday. The leading private sector group on Wednesday expressed concern that inflation could lead to consumers being more selective in their spending this year. (Photo: Apichart Jinakul)
A food vendor benefits from high sales at Yaowarat market in Bangkok on Sunday. The leading private sector group on Wednesday expressed concern that inflation could lead to consumers being more selective in their spending this year. (Photo: Apichart Jinakul)

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking expects inflation to run at 1.5-2.5% this year, and 3% in first half due to rising oil prices.

Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said on Wednesday that tension between Russia and Ukraine could prompt Russia to reduce its crude oil and natural gas production in response to pressure from opposing countries.

That would raise the price of both oil and goods, especially energy and fresh food.

Under the circumstances, the JSCCIB foresaw inflation of 1.5-2.5% over the full year, and possibly as high as 3% in the first half, he said.

The private sector committee also expected gross domestic product to expand by 3.0-4.5% and exports to rise by 3.0-5.0% this year.

"Concern about the cost of living will cause households to slow down their consumption and spend carefully, and the recovery in economic activity may be slower than earlier expected," Mr Supant said.

The Omicron variant being a less severe Covid-19 would leave some room for export growth, he said.

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