There has been a torrent of media comment about the latest Hong Kong airline wannabe, Greater Bay Airlines (GBA). Its enthusiasm is both startling -- with aviation industry revenues plummeting in a pandemic -- and understandable.
Greater Bay is the new mantra for the envisaged economic powerhouse incorporating Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macau. For GBA it is a clever, if unsubtle, capitalisation on the name.
Its logo is stridently plain. There are no sarus cranes or feathers or yin and yang symbols, just the white letters GBA set against a turquoise background. The uniforms are smart and functional, treading on Bangkok Airways' turf. There is no Landor sophistication in concept and design as in Garuda's elegant wings, or Etihad's geometric desert colours.
It is clear this will be a straight-talking, prosaically practical Chinese airline focused on revenues, something its founder Bill Wong, a colourful Hong Kong land developer and the owner of Shenzhen-based Donghai Airlines, has experience in.
Mr Wong attainted some notoriety for renting a three-storey penthouse in Shenzhen -- owned by his East Pacific Group -- to former Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang at a time when he was negotiating for a digital broadcasting licence in the territory. Mr Tsang served 12 months in jail for misconduct.
In the summer of 2020 and well before Cathay Dragon was retired, Mr Wong announced his intention to launch a new Hong Kong flag carrier. He arrived with a war chest of HK$2 billion and targeted the summer of 2021 for launch with three Boeing B737-800 aircraft.
MAINLAND FOCUS
GBA director Stanley Hui announced the hiring of staff in the second quarter of 2021. His vision was for the fledgling carrier to service Beijing, Shanghai and provincial capitals on the mainland along with regional destinations.
Cathay Dragon's closure gave GBA the opportunity it was seeking with landing slots suddenly opening up in China and across Asia and a flood of out-of-work cabin staff and pilots to pick from (both Mr Hui and GBA chief executive Algernon Yau are from Cathay Dragon).
GBA continued to talk up a storm but a hugely symbolic flight to Beijing on Oct 1, 2021 -- National Day -- failed to materialise as a licence had not been secured. Various launch dates were rolled back. On Feb 21 this year, the airline finally secured its licence to operate scheduled services between Hong Kong and 104 destinations from the Air Transport Licensing Authority.
GBA now hopes to begin flying by mid-2022 from Hong Kong to Bangkok (Suvarnabhumi), Phuket and Singapore. By 2026, Mr Wong hopes to have 30 aircraft (all B737-800s) in the fleet.
Each aircraft will seat about 170 with a small business class section for up to eight. In the manner of no-frills airlines, there will be no seatback monitors to kill time, and passengers will be encouraged to use an app to pre-order food and alcohol.
As a self-described "value" carrier, GBA will compete in the mid-market with the low-cost carrier HK Express and the beleaguered Hong Kong Airlines, which has cut routes, inflight entertainment and jobs. As a full-service legacy carrier, Cathay Pacific will continue to offer its premium service while coping with revenue-haemorrhaging Covid protocols and quarantines that have whittled passenger traffic forecasts to just 2% of pre-pandemic levels through 2022.
SURVIVAL PROGNOSIS
Will the new kid on the block survive? Stephen Miller, the flamboyant former chief executive of Dragonair (which was was later folded into the Cathay brand) tried and failed with a brilliant low-cost, long-haul attempt. His Oasis Hong Kong Airlines -- flying from Hong Kong to London and Vancouver -- folded in 2008 having racked up over US$1 billion in debt. Oasis did have seatback video screens, hot meals, and a 32-inch economy class seat pitch on its B747-400s that equalled or exceeded the legroom offered by Cathay Pacific, Air Canada and British Airways.
There are three factors working in GBA's favour. As a new airline it has no carryover debt or other baggage in the form of hedged fuel bets, legacy staff and pensions. Launching on the cusp of a post-Covid travel revival, it can cautiously ramp up costs as revenues climb. And Mr Wong's close ties to the Mainland are considered a possible advantage in securing China slots and flight times.
Hong Kong operates some of the busiest passenger routes in the world and there is enormous pent-up demand. Yet the city must wait for the Great Hong Kong Covid Firewall to come down. In the event the territory opens up to China, as it is keen to do, travel will surge to and from the Mainland. It will be a bunfight as all four carriers compete for a nibble on some hugely shrunken cake.
Vijay Verghese is a Hong Kong-based journalist, columnist and the editor of AsianConversations.com and SmartTravelAsia.com