Rates, oil and Ukraine keep investors guessing

Rates, oil and Ukraine keep investors guessing

Recap: Global stock markets were muted yesterday as investors digested rising interest rates, a new upturn in oil prices and results from peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

The SET index moved in a range of 1,639.9 and 1,686.45 points this week before closing yesterday at 1,678.51, up 1.24% from a week earlier, in daily turnover averaging 84.36 billion baht.

Foreign investors were net buyers of 11.15 billion baht. Retail investors were net sellers of 8.08 billion baht, institutional investors sold 2.57 billion and brokerage firms offloaded 496.25 million baht in shares.

Newsmakers: The US Federal Reserve escalated its battle against the wave of price increases battering the economy, raising its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as expected on Wednesday, even as it acknowledged the risks posed by the war in Ukraine.

Russian prosecutors have warned Western companies in Russia, threatening to arrest corporate leaders there who criticise the government or to seize assets of companies that withdraw from the country, sources have said.

The Covid-19 pandemic obliterated 9.3 million jobs in Southeast Asia as lockdowns hit traditional engines of growth such as hospitality and tourism, according to the Asian Development Bank.

Vietnam plans to diversify the sources of materials needed to supply the country's manufacturing sector due to tighter Covid curbs in China, Industry and Trade Minister Nguyen Hong Dien said on Wednesday.

The number of expatriate white-collar workers in Singapore fell to the lowest in more than a decade, suggesting that the city-state hasn't yet benefited from an exodus of professionals from Hong Kong.

Indonesia has significantly raised its maximum palm oil export levy in a bid to shore up domestic supplies and bring down cooking oil prices at a time when exporters are seeking to tap high global prices.

Hyundai Motor Co on Wednesday opened a plant to produce Indonesia's first locally assembled electric vehicle, with starting capacity of 150,000 units per year.

Netflix on Wednesday said it is testing charging a fee to subscribers who share their accounts with people who don't live in their homes.

Cryptocurrency so far doesn't appear to be a successful tool for avoiding the sanctions that the West has levied against Russian organisations and individuals, blockchain expects told US lawmakers this week.

After a steady retreat from highs above $130 a barrel, a surge on Thursday pushed back close to $105 a barrel as the Kremlin cast doubt on the progress of peace talks with Ukraine.

Gold prices have corrected sharply downwards, falling from a high of $2,039 an ounce on March 8 to $1,913 on Wednesday, and steadying near $1,940 as the week drew to a close.

The government plans to introduce measures including additional subsidies on LPG and NGV to help alleviate the impact of soaring energy prices on low-income earners.

The cabinet on Tuesday approved lifting the borrowing limits for the state Oil Fund to allow for management flexibility, a move that offers the government more room to cope with surging fuel prices.

The government will scrap the pre-arrival Covid-free certificate requirement for vaccinated foreign visitors but the PCR test on arrival and the antigen test on Day 5 remain. Many in the tourist industry believe at least one of those should also be scrapped.

The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) is among those wanting the government to further relax screening of foreign tourists by abandoning the burdensome Test & Go scheme, quarantine and RT-PCR testing to attract more visitors.

Tourism and Sports Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn will lead a roadshow to Saudi Arabia this month to explore opportunities to attract more visitors from the Middle Eastern country.

The government is considering lifting a cap on wheat imports after domestic feed meal prices surged because of shortages caused by Ukraine crisis.

The upsurge in global oil prices is expected to cause the power tariff, used to calculate electricity bills, to rise to a record high above 4 baht per kilowatt-hour (unit) for the first time, says the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC).

The Russia-Ukraine war, which has raised new fears of a coal supply disruption, will not have a serious impact on coal-fired power plants run by Banpu Power Plc (BPP).

The government is preparing to create a new national power development plan to increase the proportion of renewable energy used in electricity generation to 50% of all energy types by 2050.

A recently approved capital gains tax waiver for startup investors is expected to drive funding for local startups up to 320 billion baht over four years and create more than 400,000 jobs, says the Digital Council of Thailand.

The Treasury Department plans to call for bids to develop a special economic zone on its land in Tak province, says director-general Prapas Kong-Ied.

After 18 years of suspended exports, 11 Thai chicken factories have been given permission by Saudi Arabia to export chilled and frozen fresh chicken, effective from March 13.

The government looks set to ramp up fruit exports to the Middle East this year and is speeding up talks with its Chinese counterpart to help facilitate fruit exports after China's zero-Covid policy has taken a heavy toll on Thai fruit exports, especially durian.

Betong airport in Yala officially opened on Monday, raising hopes that it could revitalise tourism and the economy in the country's southernmost district. But Nok Air suspended flights the following day, citing a lack of interest.

B.Grimm Power Plc (BGRIM) has become the first private company to procure liquefied natural gas (LNG) for Thailand, a task normally handled by the majority state-owned PTT Plc.

TotalEnergies confirmed that PTTEP International, a subsidiary of PTT, would take over equity stakes in the Yadana gas field in Myanmar to keep it operating after the French company pulls out of the junta-ruled country.

Bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri) is launching digital banking in the Philippines through a joint venture with SBC (Security Bank Corporation), reaffirming its vision of becoming a regional bank.

Coming up: New Zealand will release February trade figures on Monday and Germany will release February producer prices. Canada will release February raw materials prices on Tuesday.

Britain will release February consumer and producer prices on Wednesday along with additional budget data. Germany will release March manufacturing and services PMI and the US will release February new home sales. Thursday will bring a Swiss National Bank interest rate decision, and euro zone and US will manufacturing, composite and services PMI updates. The same day, the US will release February core durable goods orders and fourth-quarter current account.

Britain will release February retail sales on Friday. Germany will release March business expectations and the Ifo business climate index and the US will release February pending home sales.

Stocks to watch: KTBST Securities believes the government's plan to further ease Covid control measures will benefit tourism stocks. Its picks in the sector include AOT, CRC, MINT, ERW and BEM.

SCB Securities recommends stocks that will benefit from interest-rate increases, including KBANK, BBL and BLA, and advises investors to watch stocks affected by the surge in energy and oil prices, including BDMS, BJC, ADVANC and CPALL.

Technical view: DBS Vickers Securities sees support at 1,650 points and resistance at 1,700. Capital Nomura Securities sees support 1,663 and resistance at 1,694.

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