The value of Thailand's exports is likely to contract 8% in the first quarter from a year earlier as global demand slows, the Thai National Shippers Council (TNSC) said on Tuesday.
The revised figure is a substantial downgrade from the group’s previous forecast of a 3.7% decline in the January-March period.
The Ministry of Commerce said last week that it also expected exports to contract in the first quarter, but that they would likely start recovering from the second quarter.
The upturn would be driven in part by an acceleration of imports to prepare for more production of goods and exports starting in the second quarter, said Phusit Ratanakul Sereroengrit, director-general of the International Trade Promotion Department.
The ministry still believes export growth of 1-2% is possible for the whole year, compared with a 5.5% increase in 2022.
Before it made its latest revision, the TNSC forecast that the export contraction would narrow to 0.7% in the second quarter, followed by gains of 1.8% and 9.8% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. The improvement would come from China’s reopening, lower freight rates and high levels of global purchases.
The US dollar value of exports in January fell for the fourth month in a row, down 4.5% year-on-year to $20.2 billion, while imports increased by 5.5% to $24.8 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $4.64 billion.
Exports to the United States dropped 4.7% in the first quarter while those to Southeast Asia fell 3.5%. Exports to China declined 11.4% from a year earlier, the ministry said.