Thailand's exports are likely to rise 1% in 2023 and should pick up later in the year, owing to a recovery in China's economy, the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) said on Tuesday.
Exports, a key driver of Thai growth, were not as weak as expected in the first quarter and should improve in the remaining months of the year, council chairman Chaichan Chareonsuk told a news conference.
Shipments in the second quarter are likely to contract at a slower pace before picking up in the second half of the year thanks to China’s recovery and improved demand from key markets, he said.
“We are confident that (exports) should not be negative as several products such as food, agriculture and vehicles should continue to do well,” he added.
The dollar value of shipments in the January-March quarter was better than expected, meaning exports have bottomed out and should continue to improve, Mr Chaichan said.
In the first quarter, exports declined 4.5% from a year earlier, compared with the group’s forecast for a 10% drop.
Second-quarter exports are expected to fall 2.7% on an annual basis, the group said, versus a previous forecast drop of 4.7%.
The group is predicting exports will rise 0.6% in the third quarter from a year earlier before jumping 12% in the fourth quarter of the year.
The baht has been favourable and stable, which should continue to support exports, Mr Chaichan said.
A baht exchange rate of 34-35 per dollar is not stronger or weaker compared with the currencies of trading partners and competitors, he added.
The baht was trading around 34.23 per dollar on Tuesday.
The TNSC, however, said global uncertainty, high stockpiles and rising production costs remained negative factors for trade.
The Bank of Thailand has predicted exports would decline 0.7% for the whole of 2023.