AMSTERDAM - Heineken NV said it is on track to hit its profit target this year, even as higher prices and economic uncertainty led drinkers in many parts of the world to pull back on premium beverage purchases.
The Amsterdam-based brewer kept its forecast of flat to 5% annual organic adjusted operating profit growth. The market had been concerned there could be a further downgrade after it reduced its growth target in July, blaming slowing demand — particularly in the key market of Vietnam — after unprecedented price hikes.
"We would expect shares to be better today given reiteration of guidance and as confidence in delivery increases," said Edward Mundy, an analyst at Jefferies. "Heineken is at the start of a multiyear change programme where we see the business delivering superior growth with margin expansion."
Heineken stock rose 1.9% in Amsterdam, after gaining as much as 3%.
What Bloomberg Intelligence says:
Positive volume in the Americas and Heineken's namesake premium brand enabled it to maintain stable to mid-single-digit operating-profit guidance despite brutal summer weather in Europe. The brewer also maintained net-income currency expectations, easing the possibility that earnings per share may drift lower. — Duncan Fox, BI consumer-products analyst
Heineken’s maintained guidance suggests support for EPS: React
Beer volumes still fell by 4.2% in the third quarter as shipments to key markets including Vietnam, Nigeria and much of Europe declined, while premium beer volumes fell even further, the company said in a statement. A revenue increase of 4.5% on an organic basis, driven by price hikes, missed the 5.3% consensus estimate from analysts.
Brewers are facing a difficult choice, as surging ingredient and production expenses drive up their costs. A subsequent increase in beer prices led to waning demand for the high-margin suds as consumers cut back to ease pressure on their wallets.
Heineken sees "gradual improvement in our business performance, although somewhat slower than our ambition," Chief Executive Dolf van den Brink said in the statement. "In half of our markets, volume trends are improving. Similarly, in just over half of our markets, we are gaining or holding market share."
Heineken completed an agreement in August to sell its assets in Russia for €1 in a deal it said would result in a €300 million loss.