The consumer price index (CPI) rose for a fourth consecutive month in July, up 0.83% from a year earlier, driven by higher prices for food and oil.
Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), said headline inflation in July was 0.83% year-on-year.
He said the rise was mainly based on higher gasoline prices and a surge in food prices, especially ready-to-eat meals, fresh fruit, rice and glutinous rice.
As for other goods and services, their prices moved in the normal direction, said Mr Poonpong.
The CPI in July compared with June increased by 0.19% month-on-month, largely attributed to an increase in the food and non-alcoholic beverages category by 0.18%.
The average CPI over the past seven months rose by 0.11% year-on-year.
Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) increased by 0.52% year-on-year, with the figure for the first seven months of the year averaging 0.42%.
He said headline inflation is expected to increase at a slower rate in August similar to the rate in July due to the extension of measures to reduce the price of electricity for another three months, the lower price of pork due to large supply in the market, the lower price of agricultural products, especially fresh vegetables, following the start of the rainy season, and the high base for crude oil at $86.61 per barrel in August 2023 compared with the price as of July 30 of $79.69 per barrel.
Other factors may keep prices of certain products at a high level, said Mr Poonpong.
For instance, the newly adjusted price of diesel (33.00 baht per litre) is higher than the same period last year.
Prices of goods and services related to tourism have also risen, especially airfares, due to continued recovery of the tourism sector.
Furthermore, fruit prices are higher than the previous year due to strong ongoing demand, particularly for durian and rambutan.
For the third quarter, the TPSO predicts headline inflation to be at a low level, similar to the second quarter.
For the fourth quarter, the office predicts headline inflation will increase, attributed to rising crude oil prices globally and the termination of the government's support measures for fuel and electricity prices.
The Commerce Ministry predicts headline inflation this year will fall within a range of 0.0% and 1.0% (averaging 0.5%), aligning with current economic circumstances.