Thailand's media spending is expected to contract this year, following the Constitutional Court's removal of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin from office on Wednesday.
The court voted five to four to remove Mr Srettha from office over the appointment of a minister with a criminal conviction.
According to Pawat Ruangdejworachai, president and chief executive of Media Intelligence Group Co, Thai media spending is now expected to fall.
He expects the removal to result in state budget spending slowing for around three months, which will make overall media spending either flat or contract compared to last year.
If the premier had not been removed, the company expected media spending to grow by 3.3% to 87.6 billion baht.
The group said the 2024 Olympics had increased ad spending by 500 million baht this year.
The Olympics and expected start of the digital wallet scheme in December led the company to earlier maintain its prediction, said Mr Pawat.
A sluggish economy and high household debt that stunted consumer spending have caused brands to clamp down on ad budgets, instead focusing on digital influencer marketing, he said.
For the first seven months of this year, overall media spending grew 4.9% year-on-year to 49.4 billion baht. Ad spending on TV fell 4%, while internet ad spending expanded 16%, out-of-home (OOH) media gained 8% and cinemas rose 35%.
For 2024, the company projects TV will account for 40.5% of ad spending, the internet 36% and OOH media 15.2%.
Next year the internet is expected to secure half of total spending, while the share of all traditional media (TV, print, magazines and radio combined) will decline to 20% from 45%, said Mr Pawat.
He said some digital TV operators will shut down, with only five players surviving in the future. More content will shift to streaming platforms, with TV holding an advantage only on offering news content, said Mr Pawat.
Among ads on digital or internet channels, totalling 31 billion baht, influencer marketing secured 25%, or 8 billion baht.
He said the term influencers in Thailand covers "nano-influencers" to celebrities.
"The rise of influencers is driven by young Gen Y, Z and Alpha consumers, with affiliated campaigns and social media platforms," said Mr Pawat.
This year, influencer marketing has gained a higher share of ad budgets, at 30% per campaign out of total marketing budgets, up from a 15% share of total budgets last year.
Mr Pawat said the major brands have felt the pinch from the economic difficulties but local brands that use social commerce and influencers have still performed well, though many of them fell out of the market.
However, the rise of China's e-marketplace platform Temu will impact the local brands, even though Temu has spent money on online advertising.
Mr Pawat said the online retail sector is expected to reach 900 billion baht this year, and 1 trillion baht within the next couple of years.
The business-to-consumer market and e-marketplaces account for 60-65% of the market value this year, followed by social or chat commerce at 25% and e-retailers at 15%.
In the e-marketplaces, Shopee has a market share of almost 50%, Lazada almost 40% and TikTokShop just over 10%.