The fourth quarter will require at least 10.1 million foreign tourist arrivals, or a 25% year-on-year increase, in order to reach the 36.7 million tourists targeted for 2024, according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).
TAT governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said attracting at least 3.5 million foreign arrivals per month during the last three months of the year remains achievable, attributed to numerous promotions, events and an increase in seat capacity, particularly from new routes.
The country recorded 26.6 million foreign arrivals for the year to Oct 5, a 30% increase from the same period in 2023, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports said.
Ms Thapanee said the new inbound flights are from many countries such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UK, Germany, Poland and Australia.
She said the TAT is closely monitoring risks, particularly natural disasters, the strong baht and conflict in the Middle East, and has included these factors in its 2025 tourism stimulus plan.
Given the strong baht, Ms Thapanee said tourism operators have already complained about the appreciation of the Thai currency against the greenback, as it could hamper the tourism industry.
She said tourism operators do not wish the exchange rate to decline to 30-31 baht in order to reduce the potential impact.
Based on these factors, the TAT has forecast that tourism revenue this year would reach 2.8 trillion baht, or about 93% of the 3-trillion-baht target.
She added that long-holiday trips from China during the Golden Week holiday period from Oct 1-7 had not been particularly affected. There were 30,000 daily travellers and 200,000 arrivals during the entire Golden Week holiday period, exceeding the maximum forecast of 182,000 made earlier.
Regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict, as Israeli airspace and airports have already reopened, she said flights and passengers would be able to resume their trips in line with regular schedules.
Some markets in the Middle East still reported strong demand and newly confirmed flights such as direct flights from Riyadh and Jeddah to Phuket by Saudia in December.
Russia will also have more direct flights to Phuket, led by S7 Airlines' flights from Irkutsk in November and December, after opening a new route from the Siberian city to Bangkok in October.
The Indian cities of Chennai and Ahmedabad will also have direct flights to the Andaman island from AirAsia, which will commence this month.
Last week, Tourism and Sports Minister Sorawong Thienthong held a meeting with TAT's 74 offices in Thailand and overseas.
Ms Thapanee said the minister is revising the 2025 tourism plan to expand its coverage.
These include promoting Thailand as a hub for six countries in Southeast Asia, planning incentives for new flights, strengthening domestic travel, adding cashless payments to new markets, and ensuring tourism safety and convenience.
In 2025, the TAT gained a 4.5-billion-baht budget for marketing promotion, an increase from 2024, but still lower than the budget for 2019, which stood at 4.6 billion baht.