US vote to be lose-lose for Thailand
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US vote to be lose-lose for Thailand

Whoever wins, trade warfare to continue

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Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump are seen in a combination of file photographs taken in Chandler, Arizona, US, October 10, 2024 and in Evans, Georgia, US, October 4, 2024. Reuters
Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump are seen in a combination of file photographs taken in Chandler, Arizona, US, October 10, 2024 and in Evans, Georgia, US, October 4, 2024. Reuters

Thailand is bracing for adverse impacts from the US presidential election this week regardless of the outcome, as rising US bond yields would cause Thailand's borrowing costs to rise, while the US-China trade war is poised to continue.

Amonthep Chawla, chief economist at CIMB Thai Bank, said Donald Trump's proposals to hike tariffs on Chinese and non-Chinese goods, as well as deporting illegal immigrants, would affect the US economy, particularly the middle class and low-income earners.

Meanwhile, trade barriers imposed under the current Democrat government would continue for four years if Kamala Harris wins, he said.

"Whether Trump or Ms Harris wins, the world will feel turbulence," said Mr Amonthep.

"Both candidates are likely to spend a lot to stimulate the economy, putting pressure on government debts and risking a government shutdown, as the US experienced in the past."

If Trump wins, exports of Thai-made goods to the US would benefit as high tariffs on Chinese products are expected to be imposed, he said.

"However, this policy will also affect Thai exports to the US via China," Mr Amonthep said.

Bond yields would rise, including for long-term bonds, meaning benchmark rates for bonds issued by governments worldwide as well as corporate issuers would also increase, he said.

Kasem Prunratanamala, head of research at CGS International Securities (Thailand), said Trump is likely to prefer traditional energy over renewables.

"We believe oil prices could fall over the medium term with a Trump win, which in turn is likely to negatively affect the oil and gas as well as refinery sectors on the Stock Exchange of Thailand," said Mr Kasem.

CGS believes investors' views on emerging markets are likely to turn cautious if Trump leads the new government, he said.

Trump has proposed increasing tariffs by another 10-20% on most foreign products and as high as 60% on goods from China. As such, the brokerage expects more foreign direct investment from China to land in Thailand, which should bode well for the industrial estate sector.

"With rising US treasury yields, the baht is likely to weaken against the US dollar, which should bode well for exporters, such as those in the electronics and food sectors," said Mr Kasem.

If Ms Harris wins, the Thai market is likely to react more positively than if Trump prevails, he said.

As a result, domestic plays such as consumer, property and banks are likely to outperform defensive stocks, he said.

Daol Securities believes a Trump victory would give a short-term lift to the US economy, stock markets and profits of US listed companies. However, there is a risk that inflation will accelerate as high import tariffs result in higher prices, noted the brokerage.

If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates less than the market expects, it will have a negative impact on stock markets worldwide, especially in Asia, the brokerage said.

If Ms Harris wins, the party's policy is to open up more opportunities for free trade negotiations, but still block trade with China, noted Daol.

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