Trump presidency offers mixed bag for Thailand
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Trump presidency offers mixed bag for Thailand

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With Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, the Finance Ministry believes his policies will bring both opportunities and challenges for the Thai economy.

According to Pornchai Thiraveja, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office, Trump's policies may offer Thailand the chance to attract investment in high-tech industries.

However, they could also lead to rising inflation, decreased exports, and more volatile capital markets, he said.

Mr Pornchai predicts Thai exports to the US might be affected, leading Thailand to seek new markets not influenced by US protectionist policies.

In addition, aggressive US trade restrictions on China may lead to a downturn in Beijing's economy, which would affect the number of Chinese tourists visiting Thailand and reduce Thai exports to China.

US foreign direct investment in Thailand might decline if the Trump administration's policies encourage domestic production, he said.

Mr Pornchai said investment funds could flow out of emerging markets, including Thailand, as the US Federal Reserve may not lower its policy rate as planned, instead increasing rates to address inflation if Trump's policies cause a spike.

This would cause the baht to depreciate against the dollar, leading to capital outflows from Thailand's bond market in search of higher bond yields in the US, he said.

Meanwhile, inflation in Thailand may trend upwards based on rising oil prices or commodities sourced from the US, which are expected to become more expensive, said Mr Pornchai.

Global capital markets, including the Stock Exchange of Thailand, may experience volatility, he said.

However, if Trump can establish clear policies and effectively promote the US economy, it could have a positive impact on the Thai stock market, as investors regain confidence in Thailand's economy and global economic growth, said Mr Pornchai.

Despite myriad risks from Trump's policies, he said there could be opportunities for Thailand, particularly in attracting investment in high-tech industries such as electronics and electric vehicles, as these sectors may use Thailand as a production base to mitigate the impact of US trade barriers.

Furthermore, the US imposition of more tariff barriers on Chinese goods may increase American demand for agricultural products and food from Thailand, particularly processed agricultural items and frozen foods, said Mr Pornchai.

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