Thailand’s economy should to grow by 3% in 2025, driven by government spending, private consumption and a rebound in exports and tourism, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).
A stable inflation rate, along with a pickup in global trade that is expected to expand by 3.2%, should support the improvement from an expected 2.6% GDP growth rate this year, said UTCC president Thanavath Phonvichai
He said there were several positive domestic factors supporting the economy, driven by the government’s economic stimulus measures. These include the second phase of the 10,000-baht cash handout scheme to seniors aged 60 and above, measures to tackle household debt, which include a suspension of interest and reduced principal payments on some bad debts, and support for farmers through the provision of 1,000 baht per rai (for up to 10 rai), benefiting 4.6 million households.
The second phase of the cash handout scheme is expected to inject 35 billion baht into the economy, while the suspension of interest for three years will contribute an additional 91 billion baht.
The cash handout for farmers will inject 38 billion baht into the economy.
Together, these three measures are projected to stimulate the economy by more than 160 billion baht, which is expected to increase GDP by roughly 1%, the university has calculated.
Other supportive factors include the recovery of the tourism sector, with foreign arrivals estimated to reach 40 million in 2025. Private consumption is forecast to grow by 3%, while exports are expected to continue to grow by 2.5%. Inflation is forecast at 1.2%, which is within the Bank of Thailand’s target range.
As well, Mr Thanavath said, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, if it holds, could improve the overall global economic outlook.
This development may help stabilise global oil prices, with forecasts that crude oil prices are expected to average around $80 per barrel.
He said Thailand’s economy still faces several risk factors that need to be closely monitored, including high levels of household and business debt, which is estimated to stand at 84.2% of GDP in 2025.
Other risks include volatility in the agricultural sector, the slowdown in China’s economy, geopolitical conflicts, as well as a potential slowdown in exports and investment due to US President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to hike tariffs.
In assessing the growth outlook for 2025, the university considered three scenarios, taking into consideration both positive factors such as economic stimulus measures and negative factors such as potential import tariff hikes by the US and the possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions.
In the worst-case scenario, if the US imposes a 15% tariff on Thai imports and the geopolitical situation deteriorates, Thailand’s GDP growth could be as low as 0.9%, compared to the current projection of 3%.
In a more favourable scenario, if Thailand faces a 10% import tariff increase from the US, GDP growth could reach 3.2%
In the best-case scenario, if Vietnam faces a 20% import tariff increase from the US and the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends, GDP could expand by up to 4%.