Thailand's household debt including informal loans has reached 104% of gross domestic product (GDP), which is expected to pressure economic growth, according to a report released by a private sector panel.
The study carried out by Chulalongkorn University, commissioned by the Joint Standing Committee for Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB), indicates the household debt-to-GDP ratio reached 104% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The calculation included informal loans, which are not counted in official statistics released by the Bank of Thailand. The latter show household debt to be around 90% of GDP.
On average, informal debt per household amounted to 98,538 baht.
Notably 40% of Thailand's households have informal debt, either as creditors or borrowers, said Kobsak Duangdee, secretary-general of the Thai Bankers' Association, after a JSCCIB meeting on Wednesday.
According to Mr Kobsak, high household debt levels pose a challenge to Thai economic growth.
However, informal debt is vital in supporting the liquidity of households, serving as a funding source for both daily living expenses and business activities, helping households manage financial emergencies, he said.
Roughly 30% of the country's households that derive income from the formal economy also rely on informal debt to manage their liquidity, according to the study.
In this context, mitigating informal debt requires appropriate measures, and digital technology could address the issue, said Mr Kobsak.
"For example, establishing a database of borrowers that includes both individuals and small and medium-sized enterprises [SMEs] would create greater opportunities for these segments to access funding sources more effectively," noted the study.
"This would help households and SMEs manage debt more effectively, contributing to the long-term sustainability of the country's economic growth."
In a separate statement, Sanan Angubolkul, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the JSCCIB predicts Thai GDP growth of 2.4% to 2.9% this year, compared with projected growth of 2.8% in 2024.
Growth in 2025 will primarily be driven by the tourism sector, with an anticipated 39 million foreign arrivals, along with government stimulus measures in the second half of the year, according to the panel.
Export growth is projected at 1.5-2.5% this year, down from 4% last year, while inflation is estimated at 0.8-1.2%, rising from 0.4% in 2024.
Mr Sanan said the country's GDP growth rate remains below its potential, highlighting the need for structural reforms to sustain long-term economic growth.
He said the Thai economy should continue to improve in the first half this year, driven by positive momentum and government stimulus measures.
Mr Sanan said a continuation of stimulus in the second half is necessary to maintain this trend.
"If stimulus measures end in the second half of the year and the government enacts proposed tax increases, it could pressure large corporations amid growing challenges for households and SMEs," he said.