
Trump 2.0 policies, referring to strategies utilised by the US president in his second term, are expected to impact products such as computers, equipment and components, electronic devices, rubber products, and agricultural goods.
However, sectors likely to benefit include semiconductors, steel and aluminium, according to a Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) study.
Pornchai Thiraveja, director-general of the FPO, said Donald Trump's inauguration speech included a proclamation of the start of a "Golden Age of America", emphasising an "America First" approach through policies that focus on protecting US trade interests, seeking to increase national revenue through tariffs and import taxes on goods from China.
A goal of these policies is to protect domestic manufacturing and agriculture by imposing higher tariffs on imports from various countries.
Trump said he wants to address trade imbalances and renegotiate trade agreements to create advantages and fairness for domestic labour and industries, encourage companies to relocate production bases back to the US to stimulate the economy, lift domestic employment, and reduce reliance on foreign imports in key industries.
In terms of energy and the economy, he vowed to repeal environmental and economic policies aimed at addressing climate change (such as the Green New Deal), eliminate electric vehicle (EV) regulations to promote energy self-sufficiency, and stimulate domestic production, especially in the oil industry.
TRADE
Mr Pornchai said the FPO anticipates Trump 2.0 policies could lead to changes in global supply chains, trade, and the economies of various countries, including Thailand.
Protectionist trade policies and increased US tariffs may affect Thailand's exports to the country, including computers, components, electronic devices, rubber products, and agricultural goods.
Higher US tariffs on Chinese goods could potentially slow China's economy, which could lead to decreased demand for goods from Thailand, significantly increasing the likelihood of China offloading its products into Asian markets, including Thailand, according to the FPO.
As a result, Thai products may face heightened competition, particularly in sectors such as automotive, chemicals, construction materials and textiles, he said.
To mitigate the impact of changing trade policies between the US and China, Mr Pornchai suggests several approaches, including diversifying export markets and import sources, as well as expanding negotiations for free trade agreements with the European Union and the European Free Trade Association.
The manufacturing sector is encouraged to adapt by focusing on high-value, complex products such as electronic components, smartphone parts, industrial agricultural goods, and clean energy solutions.
He said efforts should be directed towards labour development and the promotion of R&D to enhance production capabilities and meet global market demand.
Thailand has an opportunity to expand exports to the US of substitute goods from Chinese producers, including semiconductors, steel, aluminium, rubber products and agricultural goods, said Mr Pornchai. These products have the potential to capture a larger market share in the US, while meeting the evolving demands of a global supply chain in transition, he said.
INVESTMENT
According to Mr Pornchai, Thailand also needs to accelerate investment as the Trump administration's policies are likely to have a limited impact on US investments in Thailand, which account for 18.3% of total foreign investments.
He said higher import tariffs in the US may encourage the relocation of production bases from various countries to Thailand, particularly in the electronics and automotive industries. This presents an opportunity to promote investment in high-tech industries such as semiconductors, EVs and data centres.
Moreover, the development of specialised labour and infrastructure, such as special economic zones, high-speed railways, and ports, as well as regulatory improvements to facilitate investment, including streamlining approval processes and offering tax incentives for clean energy industries, will enhance the country's ability to attract investment and boost its competitive potential, said Mr Pornchai.
TOURISM
He said the impact of US policies on Thailand's tourism sector should be relatively limited as American visitors accounted for only 2.9% of foreign arrivals in 2024.
The majority of visitors to Thailand come from China, Japan and Europe. However, the revived US economy could encourage more American tourists to travel to Thailand.
Meanwhile, efforts to develop facilities such as digital payment systems and to upgrade infrastructure, including airports and transport systems, as well as integrating investment promotion in tourism and digital infrastructure, including high-speed internet networks and cybersecurity systems, should help attract tourists from key markets, said Mr Pornchai.
These initiatives should increase confidence among both investors and tourists, supporting Thailand's long-term economic growth, he said.
Mr Pornchai said in addition to policies addressing uncertainty, the effective implementation of fiscal policies can promote economic expansion and enhance long-term economic stability.
The government is also encouraging foreign investment by implementing initiatives to elevate Thailand as a regional and global financial hub, he said.