Thai exporters risk higher US tariffs, while the Thai government could face pressure to import more goods from the US to reduce its trade surplus with the country, according to the chief of Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research).
Burin Adulwattana, managing director and chief economist at K-Research, said the think tank has not yet assessed the impact of higher US import tariffs on Thai products.
The impact would depend on the extent of the tariff increase and whether it would be applied universally to all countries, or specifically to Thailand, he said.
According to Mr Burin, Thai exports to the US that are at risk of US trade barriers include Bluetooth modules, broadband products, solar modules, power adapters, machinery and parts, auto parts, mobile camera modules, and air conditioners.
However, for auto parts such as tyres, despite US trade barriers, Thai-made tyres still have a cost advantage, he said.
Mr Burin warned Thailand may also need to purchase more goods from the US to reduce its trade surplus.
Thailand has the 10th-largest trade surplus with the US. Thailand may be expected to import more oil, chemicals, natural gas, small aircraft, soybeans and wheat from the US, according to K-Research.
However, he said some Thai exports to the US may be exempt from trade barriers, particularly those that are originally from US companies, but are manufactured in Thailand.
Regarding Chinese companies relocating production bases to other countries including Thailand to avoid US trade barriers, Mr Burin said solar panels produced in Thailand were already subject to US anti-dumping and countervailing duty measures. This led to a 34% decline in Thai solar panel exports to the US in 2024 year-on-year.
He said if Chinese manufacturers relocate to other countries such as Laos or Indonesia, the US is expected to continue to impose trade barriers.
According to Mr Burin, US President Donald Trump's "America First" policy prioritises bilateral over multilateral trade agreements, aiming to create balanced trade through progressive tariffs, while returning manufacturing jobs to the US, particularly in the automotive and computer industries.
The US has strategic industries that are critical to its economic and political security, including steel, aluminium, defence, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, aerospace and pharmaceuticals, according to K-Research.
"Thailand's strategy in response to Trump's policies should involve opening its market further to US businesses or increasing imports from the US to reduce the trade surplus," said Mr Burin.
He said if the US-China trade war escalates further, the Federal Reserve may be unable to cut interest rates as much as expected, with the current forecast for two rate cuts this year.
Mr Burin said Thailand has less than two months to negotiate with the US regarding trade barriers, with the outcome dependent on Thailand's negotiating abilities.