US President Donald Trump's plan to impose stiff tariffs of up to 3,521% on solar panel imports from Southeast Asia will cause China, the world's largest solar panel maker, to strengthen sales in Asia, say analysts in the state and private sectors.
Thailand should face a limited impact from Washington's new duty, said the analysts.
Chinese solar panel companies are expected to sell more products in Asia as their shipments to the US face a trade barrier, said an official at the Energy Policy and Planning Office who requested anonymity.
"The situation will be similar to what happened with Chinese electric vehicles [EVs]," he said.
Last year US President Joe Biden's administration decided to slap a 100% tariff on Chinese EV imports, citing unfair trade practices by Beijing.
This caused China to concentrate on expanding its EV manufacturing within Asia, with Thailand poised to become a key export hub, the Federation of Thai Industries said earlier.
According to media reports, Trump's steep tariffs on solar panel imports comes after an investigation that began a year ago when several major solar equipment producers asked the US government to protect their domestic operations.
The proposed tariffs, targeting companies in Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam, are in response to allegations of subsidies from China and the dumping of unfairly cheap products in the US market.
A separate US government agency, the International Trade Commission, is due to reach a final decision on the new tariffs in June.
Chinese companies with factories in Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam are accused of shipping panels priced below their cost of production as a result of unfair state subsidies.
In Thailand, some Chinese manufacturers rebrand solar products and export them to the US, while others focus on selling rooftop solar panels in Thailand, said Treerat Sirichantaropas, chief executive of New Energy Plus Solutions, which sells solar panels made by Shanghai-based Jinko Solar Holding.
Many Thai companies import solar products for domestic sales, he said.
Koraphat Vorachet, assistant managing director and head of research at Krungsri Securities, said the new tariffs will affect Thailand less than other nations in Southeast Asia.
Chinese solar manufacturer Trina Solar's products from Thailand will incur tariffs of 375%, compared with the 3,521% rate applied to products from Cambodia, he said.
Costs are also declining for solar cell manufacturers, said Mr Koraphat.
"Chinese solar cell manufacturers have spread their investments throughout Southeast Asia as a way of rebranding themselves and escaping US tariffs. However, there is limited production by those manufacturers in Thailand," he said.
Imports from the four targeted countries this year are a fraction of what they were a year ago, while shipments of panels from nations such as Laos and Indonesia are rising, said Mr Koraphat.