The government remains confident that credit rating agencies will maintain Thailand's sovereign credit rating at its current level thanks to the strength of Thai financial institutions and the country's ability to retain fiscal discipline after the Covid-19 crisis.
Speaking on Wednesday during the 2025 Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held in Washington, DC, Deputy Finance Minister Paopoom Rojanasakul said he had discussions with three major credit rating agencies: JPMorgan, Moody's, and Standard & Poor's (S&P).
He said Thailand is gradually recovering from prolonged low growth. While there are emerging signs of recovery in several sectors, the economy has yet to reach its full potential.
In addition, Mr Paopoom said uncertainty due to US trade policies is likely to significantly impact Thailand's economy -- both directly through exports and indirectly via a global economic slowdown and decreased investment activity.
In response, the Thai government is preparing fiscal and monetary policies, as well as deploying state-owned specialised financial institutions, to cautiously manage this transition period and economic volatility.
"Thailand has maintained macroeconomic stability, with low and stable inflation. Both public and private financial institutions remain financially sound, with commercial banks posting a Bank for International Settlements ratio of 20.1%, reflecting robust financial health," he said.
"Moreover, Thailand has foreign reserves exceeding US$247 billion, serving as a strong buffer against economic volatility."
On the fiscal front, Mr Paopoom said the government emphasises proactive public debt management and discipline in debt servicing.
Although the pandemic prompted the government to secure more borrowing, leading to an uptick in public debt, this borrowing played a crucial role in driving economic growth over the past two years.
Public debt is now 64.2% of GDP, within the public debt management framework.
The average borrowing cost is 2.82%, with an average maturity of 9 years and 2 months, and foreign currency-denominated debt accounts for just 0.9% of GDP, indicating low exposure to interest rate and exchange rate risk.
Thailand's public debt according to IMF standards is only 58.5% of GDP. Moreover, Thailand still maintains strong debt affordability, he said.
"Thanks to these strengths, it is highly likely Thailand's sovereign credit rating will remain at BBB+ from S&P, equivalent to Baa1 from Moody's, with a stable outlook. This places Thailand firmly in the investment-grade category," said Mr Paopoom.
Finance permanent secretary Lavaron Sangsnit said on Wednesday Thailand's fiscal position remains strong.
As for the government's plans to implement a major stimulus package worth more than 500 billion baht this year, he said it remains to be seen which areas it will target.
Mr Lavaron said stimulating consumption tends to yield quick results, but investment is also essential for restructuring the economy.
He said it has not been determined whether borrowing will be necessary for a stimulus package.
Multiple approaches are possible, such as reallocating existing budget resources, including the remaining 150 billion baht from a previous stimulus budget, said Mr Lavaron.
State financial institutions could also provide loans to inject liquidity into the economy, he said.
Final decisions on these projects are expected to solidify next month, while global economic developments are monitored, said Mr Lavaron.
Regarding the government's proposed increase in the debt ceiling to 75-80% of GDP, he said the ceiling is not the main concern.
Numerous countries operate effectively with debt levels at 80% or even 100% of GDP. What truly matters is how the borrowed funds are utilised and the nation's capacity to repay the debt, said Mr Lavaron.
Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said the country may need a stimulus programme large enough to generate real momentum, which would require a budget of at least 500 billion baht and a focus on domestic issues.
This would involve stimulating both consumption and domestic investment, as well as soft loans, said Mr Pichai.
As for funding sources, various options will need to be considered, with discussions continuing with the National Economic and Social Development Council and the Bank of Thailand, he said.